Geopolitics / International

• Fractured US Intelligence Rules out Greater Cooperation with Russia

  The US intelligence community is in a state of disarray—most recently illustrated by the Boston Marathon Bombings—and the idea of a more structured cooperation with Russian intelligence as a direct result of this incident is a paper tiger. The mainstream US media has latched on to the idea of a new era of US-Russian intelligence cooperation as a result of the Chechen connection to the Boston bombing because this is an attractive post-Cold War idea that makes for good headlines. The reality is clearly less dramatic. The mounting US intelligence failures since 9/11 can in large part be contributed to…

• Boston Marathon Attacks, Chechnya and Oil – the Hidden U.S. Connection

  As Boston and U.S. security agencies congratulate themselves over the apparent neutralization of a pair of Chechens that bombed the Boston Marathon, troubling questions are beginning to arise.First and foremost is, why a pair of Chechens, born in the former Soviet republic of Kyrgyzstan, apparently committed the attack?For possible answers, one must looks beyond the present and delve into Russia’s and the USSR’s past policies towards Chechnya, and since 1991, U.S. policy in the Caucasus, which since the 1991 implosion of the USSR had a single focus – the exploitation of the Caspian’s massive energy reserves.It is a history that…

• Chinese Energy Firms Invade U.S. Neighbors Mexico and Canada

  In 1946, with the U.S.-USSR-British military alliance that had defeated Germany and Japan in World War Two unraveling, U.S. diplomat George F. Kennan cabled a dispatch to Washington advocating a policy of “containment” of the USSR that was to become the bedrock of U.S. foreign policy during the Cold War until the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.In the last two decades, despite the implosion of the USSR and its subsequent dissolution, the U.S. and its European allies have advanced NATO up to the Russian Federation’s western frontiers, incorporating former eastern and Central European satellite states Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary,…

• VENEZUELA-US: Tell-Tale Signs of Hostile Environment for Investors

  Bottom Line: As Maduro expels two US government officials from Venezuela, cutting off informal channels of communication, and the US reciprocates by expelling 2 Venezuelan diplomats, optimism surrounding a post-Chavez regime wanes.  Analysis: Despite some optimistic reports that Chavez’s passing could start a new chapter in the relationship between the US and Venezuela, tell-tale signs in the last few weeks debunk this. Maduro expelled 2 US government officials on 5 March, and a week later the US reciprocated by expelling 2 Venezuelan diplomats. This latest diplomatic tit-for-tat came after public statements of support by a US State Department official for…

• IRAN-PAKISTAN-CHINA: New Powers Emerge in Strait of Hormuz

  Bottom Line: Last week Pakistan announced that construction on the Pakistani portion of the Iran-Pakistan pipeline will begin on 11 March. This week Iran announced it would build a refinery in Gwadar, in Pakistan's Baloch province. This will spur China's energy plans in Pakistan and sets up Gwadar to become a major oil city near the Strait of Hormuz and out of Washington's hands.  Analysis: The Iranian-funded refinery—announced by Iran but not yet signed into force by the two parties—will have a 400,000 barrel per day capacity and comes on the heels of an announcement that construction on a massive…

• Pakistan Thumbs Nose at U.S. on Energy

  Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari may head to Iran next week for the formal launch of the construction of a natural gas pipeline that's been in the works for roughly 20 years. Once dubbed the Peace Pipeline, the project would bring natural gas from the Shah Deniz gas field in the Persian Gulf to Pakistan. Washington objects to the pipeline in favor of a rival project from Turkmenistan. Asked about the opposition, the Pakistan president said nobody can interfere with the project's development. With elections coming later this year to Pakistan, however, the project may be as much about energy…

• How will Russia and China's Growing Relationship Affect Global Politics?

  Historically, Russia-China relations have been characterized by long periods of mistrust, interspersed with bouts of anger, fear, resentment, and at times even open hostilities. During the Soviet period, Moscow and Beijing were, for the most part, able to present a superficial front of friendship based on a common communist ideology. Yet, despite their past differences—at times irreconcilable—the two countries are now cooperating and could even become ‘bedfellows’ again, a development that would be perceived as rather alarming by many Western analysts.The two counties mostly cooperate in areas where both countries have competitive advantages, including trade in energy resources, sales of…

• Be Careful: Russia is Back to Stay in the Middle East

  Russia is back.  President Vladimir Putin wants the world to acknowledge that Russia remains a global power.  He is making his stand in Syria.The Soviet Union acquired the Tardus Naval Port in Syria in 1971 without any real purpose for it.  With their ships welcomed in Algeria, Cuba or Vietnam, Tardus was too insignificant to be developed.  After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia lacked the funds to spend on the base and no reason to invest in it.The Russian return to the Middle East brought them first to where the Soviet Union had had its closest ties.  Libya…

• TURKEY-ISRAEL: Gas Pipeline Rumors Are Geopolitically Tectonic

  Bottom Line: Israel and Turkey are flirting with the idea of building a gas pipeline from Israel’s Leviathan Basin directly to Turkey to supply European markets. For gas-starved Turkey, this is a geopolitical quagmire that involves Israel, Iran, Syria, Qatar, and Cyprus. Turkey is keeping silent on the deal, but our intelligence sources say it is seriously being considered, despite media reports to the contrary.  Analysis: In early February, Israel proposed the construction of a pipeline under the Mediterranean Sea to southern Turkey to market its gas to Western Europe. Turkish officials have conceded that the Israeli proposal has been…

• Rhetoric Increases as Falkland Referendum Looms

  Next month will determine the eventual fate of the Falkland Islands—and the 1.4 billion barrels of oil so far discovered there—when a referendum on self-determination is held. In the run-up to that referendum, Argentina has stepped up the rhetoric, most recently with the Argentine Foreign Minister claiming that within 20 years, the Falkland Islands will be entirely under Argentina’s control. UK Foreign Secretary William Hague has responded by calling this a counterproductive “fantasy”. Hague says the government of Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has refused diplomatic dialogue and chosen instead a path of “bullying”. “We shall never negotiate about…