Insider Secrets

Insider Secrets

Learn how the PROs are making money from the oil and energy market.

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Energy / Oil Prices

  • Oil Prices Jump To Six-Month High

    Oil prices surged to their highest levels in six months on Wednesday as the Fed left interest rates unchanged. WTI jumped by 2.8 percent to $45.29 per barrel and Brent climbed by 3.17 percent to $47.19 per barrel. Those are the highest prices so far in 2016 and the oil markets continue to bet on rising momentum for crude. The Federal Reserve added strength to oil when it announced its decision to leave interest rates unchanged, a move that caused the dollar to weaken and oil prices to rise. The Fed also softened its language regarding its concerns over the…

  • Has the Oil Price Rally Gone Too Far?

    Oil speculators are growing more confident that prices are gaining ground on the back of rising demand and shrinking supply. U.S. gasoline demand is at a record high for this time of year, with the four-week consumption rate for gasoline above 9.3 million barrels per day (mb/d). That is important because the summer months typically see higher consumption than in the spring, so demand could continue to rise. (Click to enlarge)At the same time, production is falling. Weekly EIA data shows that output has declined to 8.95 mb/d, sharply down from a peak of nearly 9.7 mb/d in April 2015.…

  • What Iron Ore Futures Tell Us About Oil Prices

    Recent Commodity Prices Dynamics With commodity prices falling precipitously during the last 2 years it has been a hard time for both commodity market analysts and commodity exporting countries’ finance ministers. Expectations of prices moving even lower are still elevated especially for oil and other energy resources. Nevertheless, there was a bright spot recently: a range of metals prices have rebounded from near all-time lows. Iron ore took most headlines with an almost 40 percent jump since January 2016 for the 62 percent ferrous content shipments delivered to Qingdao China. (Click to enlarge)Basic Model Does it mean anything for other commodities –…

  • Iran’s Dilemma: Too Much Oil And Not Enough Ships

    Late last week, just ahead of the Doha meeting, we reported that Iran's existing oil tanker armada, which until recently had been on anchor next to the Iranian coast and which according to Windward data was storing as much as 50 million barrels offshore, had finally started to move.The reason, as Bloomberg reported, was that tankers carrying about 28.8 million barrels of crude, or more than 2 million a day, left the Persian Gulf country’s ports in the first 14 days of April. That compares with a rate of about 1.45 million barrels a day in March. As a result,…

  • Why Oil Won’t Crash Following Doha Failure

    The Doha meeting turned out to be a complete wash, but still, the rumour and expectation leading up to the meeting produced a massive rebound in oil prices. And while logic says that the markets should now crash because Doha failed to give us an output freeze, logic doesn’t typically rule this roost. A downtrend ends when the bearish traders believe that the stock/commodity will not fall further and they rush to close their shorts, locking in their profits. Simultaneously, the bullish traders build long positions, believing that the prices are attractive and a rebound is possible. However, the pullback…

  • Oil Prices Up On Weaker Dollar, Declining Production

    One hundred and nineteen years to the day after the first Boston marathon, and oil markets are running higher once more. Looking beyond Doha disappointments, the market is finding solace in current supply outages, while hoping to see market balancing picking up pace going forward. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets today: 1) Currency moves are being thoroughly supportive for the crude complex today, with the yen moving to a near-18 month high versus the U.S. dollar. Commodity currencies such as the Aussie and Kiwi dollars have soared to 10-month highs, as risk appetite chomps at…

  • How You Can Profit From The Doha Meeting

    In a forex dealing room, where I got my start and my training, talking your book is a time honored tradition. In its simplest form it consists of simply telling everybody you can find that “…this thing looks bid to me” if you are long or, if you are short, that “…the bottom’s about to fall out of this”. The practice has been around forever, but has limited use as everybody in the market assumes that everybody else is talking their book whenever they offer an opinion. Far more effective in many cases is to start a rumor and watch…

  • Why Oil Prices Will Rise And Many Pundits Will Be Caught By Surprise

    I follow oil pretty closely given our exposure. As such, I get frustrated with many press and news show accounts of the commodity. It gets worse when the pundits and writers should know better. Frequently inexact terminology leads to misconceptions and sometimes I see outright falsehoods that completely distort the truth. As a former oil analyst and professional energy investor, I feel compelled to take those to task. As a realist, I see that all markets require a difference of opinion and all investors talk their “book”. For this reason, when Jeff Currie at Goldman Sachs Commodities Group gets on…

  • $120 Oil As Soon As 2018?

    Today, I’m going to try and tackle the reasoning for my ‘wild’ predictions for oil reaching triple digits by the end of 2017. While I am nearly alone in these forecasts, they are not just pulled out of space, but with deep regard for the fundamental supply/demand picture that everyone mostly agrees upon, combined with what I think is a deeper insight into the likely trajectory of oil company leverage, financing and the role of financial oil derivatives. Despite the technical nature of this discussion, I think I can make a strong case for $120 oil in 2018 using only…

  • Can A Divided OPEC Agree On Anything In Doha?

    Only two weeks remain until the fated meeting between the OPEC countries and their counterparts from outside the organization, scheduled to take place in the Qatari capital of Doha on the coast of the Persian Gulf. The meeting could very well determine the direction oil futures will take, at least until the next OPEC meeting in Vienna on June 2. Crude oil exporting countries around the world enjoyed significant profits since 2010 as prices circled around the $100/barrel mark, until ultimately falling victims to their own record output volumes as supply began to exceed global oil demand amid a slowing…

Martin tiller