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Energy / Oil Prices

  • North American Oil Glut to Keep Prices Low, IMF says

    The International Monetary Fund said global crude oil prices have been relatively lower because of the growth in oil supply from North America. With U.S. oil production on pace to eclipse 9 million barrels per day near term, the trend should continue through next year. Nearly all of the growth in global oil production is coming from the United States and Canada. Combined, North American production growth is around 1.2 million barrels per day from U.S. shale oil and Canadian oil sands. IMF said this growth was spilling over to the global marketplace "Crude oil prices have edged lower, mainly as a…

  • The Correct Price for Crude Oil

    With the flattish nature of its action over the past several months, oil seems to have reached a tipping point on price.  It’s almost as if the charts are saying that oil either must break up or break down, if long-term trendlines are going to be respected.Barrons took the opportunity to plump for a downside break last weekend, a prediction I have vigorously argued against in both print media and on-air.  But one follower of mine made a very astute observation, pointing out to me that futures markets for crude oil ten years out are ‘predicting’ oil prices almost $20…

  • How the Situation in Crimea Could Cause Oil Prices to Fall

    Moscow’s aggression in Crimea has markets in a panic and bulls predicting continued increases in the price of oil should tensions endure. Nonetheless, there is a chance that Russia’s Ukrainian incursion could result in the exact opposite effect—a decline in oil prices. There are two different ways the Crimean crisis could result in decreased prices: a positive supply shock from the American strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) and a negative demand shock from financially crippled emerging markets. On the supply side, the West is searching for a way to oppose Russian aggression but must tread a fine line between effective resistance…

  • Russia‚Äôs Eastern War: Part Two?

    The crisis in the Crimea has already raised the price of Russian oil by $2 a barrel, as of Monday creating havoc on some energy markets. And this is only the beginning of what could turn onto a long and complicated crisis pitting the former Cold War foes into a new hot conflict.  Oh yes, and the Russian rouble is the losing value to the US dollar.The uncertainty prevailing in Ukraine and subsequently the uncertainty in the Crimea, a strategic peninsula situated at the southern tip of the country, could send oil prices soaring upwards some more if the current…

  • Four Countries that Could Send Oil Prices Up

    The week of February 17 has been a violent one, with protests, intense political unrest, and many casualties in several countries around the world. Protestors in Ukraine are stealing the headlines, with a Molotov-cocktail fueled ring of fire. These events are significant, but for the energy world, it is the sudden wave of instability in oil producing countries that are on investors’ minds – unrest that threatens to send oil prices skyward. With shale oil surging in the United States, sometimes we in the West forget how much we depend on some politically wobbly countries to meet global demand. Oil…

  • One for the Speculators Amongst You

    The last several weeks have seen some very strong US crude oil prices, adding strength to my prediction that we'll likely see average prices of well over $100 a barrel for crude oil for the remainder of 2014.  Along with this prediction should come some actionable US exploration and production companies that are being undervalued based upon continuing high and sticky crude prices.  I've highlighted a few of these recently, including Noble Energy (NBL), EOG Resources (EOG), Continental (CLR) and Cimarex (XEC).  But most of my readers want even more risk for part of their energy portfolio and the chance…

  • Big Oil Sheds Assets to Fix Balance Sheets

    The oil industry may be in the midst of entering a new phase of high costs and slower growth. New oil discoveries are harder to come by, and the scramble to replace depleting production is costing more and more. The days of the large discovery that is easy to tap into are gone. Now, the industry has to go to the ends of the earth to get more oil. And for years, the majors were happy to do so – capital expenditures rose significantly over the last decade for most of the largest oil companies.  But the main problem? Production…

  • South Korea Joins Japan in Oil Payments to Iran

    The government of South Korea is preparing to issue a payment to Iran for crude imports as limited relief from sanctions in line with a six-month deal over Iran’s nuclear program gets underway, making it the second country to so do after Japan, Reuters reports.In December 2013, South Korean’s crude oil imports from Iran increased over the previous months, according to Reuters, and the Iranian central bank has up to $5.6 billion in South Korea, in two won-denominated accounts. The news agency quoted an unnamed source as saying that South Korea’s payment to Iran would likely be made in early…

  • Oil Market Predictions for 2014

    For my last column of 2013, I’ll give a few predictions for the energy markets for 2014 and one in particular where I am almost alone among the energy analysts out there:  Oil will see significantly higher prices in 2014 than in 2013.Most analysts I read see the fundamental picture in oil from a US-centric point of view; that is, an increasingly strong production trend from the oil shale plays here in the US from the Bakken, Eagle Ford and newly developing Permian basin and couple that with an increasing efficiency and demand slackening here in the US which has…

  • Oil Market Forecast & Review 27th December 2013

    February crude oil futures continued the rally it began several weeks ago at $92.10. Based on the break from $106.22 to $92.10, the market has already retraced more than 50% of this range. The retracement zone target at $99.16 to $100.82 could slow down the rate of ascent, but so far it doesn’t look like the move is attracting fresh shorting pressure despite the downtrend on the weekly chart. The main trend will change to up on a trade through $102.52. A trade through $92.10 will reaffirm the downtrend. Because of this, one has to assume that the current move…