Insider Secrets

Insider Secrets

Learn how the PROs are making money from the oil and energy market.

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Energy / Oil Prices

  • Short-Sellers Beware This Coming Week

    August Crude Oil futures finished lower last week for a number of reasons. The market started the week under pressure and never looked back. The catalyst at the start of the week was the uncertainty about the financial crisis in Greece. The initial reaction by investors was not caused by the usual supply and demand factors per se, but by investors moving money out of risky assets.On Monday, the Greek government confirmed it wouldn’t be able to make its monthly loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund by the deadline on Tuesday, June 30. This action moved Greece closer to…

  • Bearish News For Oil Growing By The Day

    Oil hit its lowest point in two months on July 1, falling on a combination of market turmoil and bearish oil figures. WTI dipped below $57 and Brent dropped to around $62 per barrel, breaking out of a narrow range within which the two benchmarks have been trading for several months. The ongoing crisis in Greece is weighing on global markets. The Greek government has called a referendum set for July 5th that will largely test the Greek public’s desire to endure more austerity or else risk a more uncertain path. Greece’s creditors have declined to negotiate an extension of…

  • Oil Faces Steep Downside Risk From China’s Stock Market

    Oil markets face a lot of downside risk – high crude oil inventories in both the U.S. and Europe, resilient production from U.S. shale, increasing output from OPEC, a nuclear deal with Iran, the turmoil in Greece – but one has not yet percolated through the markets just yet: the possibility of economic cracks in China, the largest oil importer in the world.China’s economic growth has been cooling in recent years, with 2014 marking its slowest GDP growth rate in a quarter century. But that doesn’t signal anything is amiss. It is entirely unsurprising that the world’s second largest economy…

  • Current Oil Price Slump Far From Over

    The oil price collapse of 2014-2015 began one year ago this month (Figure 1). The world crossed a boundary in which prices are not only lower now but will probably remain lower for some time. It represents a phase change like when water turns into ice: the composition is the same as before but the physical state and governing laws are different.*Figure 1. Daily crude oil prices, June 2014-June 2015. Source: EIA. (Click image to enlarge) For oil prices, the phase change was caused mostly by the growth of a new source of supply from unconventional, expensive oil. Expensive oil…

  • Downside Bias Emerging In Crude Futures

    August crude oil futures are set to finish the week lower after an earlier rally failed to draw enough long interest to drive the market away from the retracement zone that has been providing resistance for several weeks. A close below this area on Friday will set a bearish tone for next week. This could create enough downside momentum to trigger a break into the last main bottom at $56.88. A trade through this bottom will turn the main trend to down. (Click to enlarge)The main range is $48.71 to $64.12. If the selling pressure is strong enough to take…

  • Oil Markets Await Outcome Of Iran Talks

    Oil prices have leveled off in recent weeks, but with the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program bumping up against a deadline, that could change. After crashing last year and then hitting several peaks and valleys, oil prices have traded within a relatively narrow range, with WTI bouncing around a bit above and below the $60 per barrel mark, and Brent staying near $64 per barrel. Of course, day-to-day there has been volatility as usual, but oil prices have been stable (relatively speaking) since the end of April. Even the OPEC meeting came and went without so much as a shrug…

  • Little To No Value In Oilfield Services Yet

    I’ve got deadlines – and a new set of columns to be written about the energy space every week. These days that’s tough, because there’s so little to like in the energy sphere, even as the stock averages hover near to index highs. More bad news surfaced today in the oil services sector, making the big services companies like Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL) and particularly Helmerich and Payne (HP) difficult places to find value. With the rig count drop, we haven’t yet seen a major drop in production – but activity is certainly way down. That impacts the oil services…

  • Slowing Production May Hold Prices In Range

    After reaching its highest level in three weeks and posting a higher close the week-ending June 12, August Crude Oil futures posted an inside move this week. Although the market is in a position to once again close higher for the week, the inability to take out last week’s high suggests yet more trader indecision. The lack of upside momentum also suggests a possible shift in investor sentiment. Based on the short-term range of $64.12 to $56.88, it looks as if the next move will be determined by trader reaction to is 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $60.50 to…

  • Russia’s Rosneft To Help Venezuela’s Oil Sector

    Russia’s state-owned oil company may provide its Venezuelan counterpart a much needed loan of $5 billion. Venezuela’s oil company, PDVSA, is in desperate need of capital in order to help boost oil and gas production. In exchange for the loan, Reuters reports that Rosneft could gain greater access to PDVSA’s oil and gas reserves. As it stands, Rosneft often only takes in discounted revenues from the Petromonagas joint venture, which processes and sells heavy oil at reduced rates to the local Venezuelan market. Rosneft is seeking more control, plus the ability to export production, which will bring in much higher…

  • Why The Oil Rally May Well Be Over

    The oil markets could be about to enter another round of soft prices.The OPEC decision on June 5 to leave its collective target unchanged was widely expected. As a result, oil prices barely flinched. But there are other reasons to think that oil prices could see a bit of a downturn in the coming weeks.First, OPEC revealed in its latest monthly oil report that it is still producing well above its stated 30 million barrel per day target. Saudi Arabia’s output inched up another 25,000 barrels per day in May from the month before in a further sign that OPEC’s…

Martin tiller