Insider Secrets

Insider Secrets

Learn how the PROs are making money from the oil and energy market.

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Energy / Oil Prices

  • No Agreement on OPEC Meeting After Venezuela Meets With Saudi Arabia

    The prospects for an emergency OPEC meeting to initiate coordinated production cuts took a hit this weekend. Venezuela’s oil minister Eulogio del Pino flew to Riyadh to meet with Saudi officials, which followed a recent trip to Moscow to gin up support from Russia for their cooperation. Venezuela has sent a formal request to OPEC for an emergency meeting, and del Pino has been conducting some shuttle diplomacy to build support to stabilize oil prices. However, after meeting with Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Ali al-Naimi, a very powerful voice in forming OPEC strategy, the meeting adjourned with no agreement. Although…

  • Despite Huge Losses Oil Companies Reluctant To Shut In Production

    As energy investors look for reasons to be optimistic, many are keeping close tabs on supply figures. There are some signs that supply is taking a hit from disparate parts of the globe. According to Bloomberg, China might see its output dip by 3 to 5 percent in 2016, down from a record high of 4.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) last year. If that occurs, it would be the largest drop since at least the early 1990s and the first decline in seven years. China’s oil production does not get nearly as much press as its consumption figures do,…

  • A Significant Fundamental Shift for Oil Amongst All of the Noise

    It has been another wild week for those of us that track and trade the oil market. It started with a two day decline of nearly 15 percent and then over the next two days oil futures recovered almost all of that before turning tale again on Thursday afternoon. Given the degree of volatility we have experienced since the start of the year it is tempting to look at this week of just more of the same, but there is a difference. One fundamental thing changed this week that has shifted the long term outlook and it came from outside…

  • Fundamentals For Oil Still Bearish, But Sentiment Is Shifting

    Oil speculators spent the latter half of 2015 with an incredibly pessimistic view of the trajectory for oil prices. Speculators piled into short positions, pushing net-shorts to multiyear highs. But speculators are at a bit of a crossroads at this point. With oil down to $30 and below, a growing number of hedge funds and other major investors are starting to wonder whether or not the selloff has gone too far. To be sure, oil markets are still suffering from too much supply, but with so much production around the world unprofitable at today’s prices, a rally will have to…

  • Signs Of A Shift In Sentiment Are There, But Where Is The Catalyst?

    March Crude Oil Analysis If you’re watching crude oil prices every day, you will probably say the market is volatile, choppy and directionless. If you’re watching it on a weekly basis, you may say that the market is trading in an orderly fashion. The short-term charts are full of trading “noise”. This is what is causing the two-sided trade. The fundamentals are also two-sided. There are supply side fundamentals. Demand side fundamentals. Short-term fundamentals and long-term fundamentals. The constant flood of fresh news into the crude oil market is also having a major influence on the price volatility. This week,…

  • Weak Economy Could Stifle Oil Price Rally

    As I have explained previously, the main drivers for a sustained oil price recovery – if we shove aside all the media noise and fundamentals – will be Fed policy changes and or OPEC production cuts. It appears that both are about to happen. First, quasi-recessionary statistics are becoming louder and louder and are now being reflected in recent earnings releases from both Apple and Boeing. On another note, recent weakness in the service sector and continuing deterioration in capital spending and manufacturing make a fed rate hike in 2016 unlikely. At this point, the Fed will probably only hike…

  • Rumors of OPEC-Russia Coordination Send Oil Prices Surging

    Oil prices surged by midday on Wednesday on comments from Russian officials hinting at possible coordination with OPEC on production cuts in an effort to arrest the decline in prices. The day didn’t start off on such a positive note. The EIA reported a massive increase in oil storage levels – a jump of 8.4 million barrels last week. Inventories are at their highest levels in at least 80 years. That pushed oil prices down in early trading on Wednesday. But by noon on the East Coast of the U.S., oil prices surged on news that the chief of Transneft…

  • Only Recession Can Prevent An Oil Price Spike

    The biggest result from the collapse in oil prices could be a future price spike. Oil prices at $30 per barrel have put most producers under water. That has led to austere budgets and severe cuts to spending. Wood Mackenzie recently estimated that $380 billion in major oil projects have been delayed or cancelled since. That means that about 27 billion barrels that had been slated for production from those projects will now not be produced. But more cuts are expected moving forward. “There has been a $1.8 trillion reduction in spending planned for 2015 to 2020 compared to what…

  • Weak Global Economic Growth Linked To Oil Price Collapse

    We begin with a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week before looking at some of the key market movers and providing the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days (Click to enlarge) (Click to enlarge) Chart of the Week• Lost amid the hype over the collapse of oil prices has been the dramatic plunge in natural gas prices. • Average spot prices for Henry Hub in December were down to $1.93 per million Btu (MMBtu), the lowest monthly…

  • How Soon Could A Sustained Oil Price Rally Occur?

    There’s an old saying in journalism that goes, “Never let the facts ruin a good story.” This accurately describes what should be called The Incredible Shrinking Oil Price. Combined with sagging world stock markets, a global economy that has all but quit growing because near-zero interest rates are no longer stimulating the economy and the continued strength of the U.S. dollar, oil cannot hide from the overall bearishness. Shorting commodities may be the only thing traders can make money at nowadays. After all, to earn quick profits trading anything, prices have to move. The direction is less important than volatility.…

Martin tiller