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WoodMac: Global Green Car Sales To Overtake Gas Vehicles Until 2047

Global sales of battery electric vehicles, fuel-cell vehicles, and plug-in hybrids are set to exceed the sales of light-duty vehicles with internal combustion engines for the first time in 2047, new research from Wood Mackenzie showed this week.

According to WoodMac, sales of vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE) will account for 44 percent of global vehicle sales in 2050, as alternative zero-emission cars will dominate the new car sales.

The share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is set to be at 48 percent in 2050, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales are expected to account for 5 percent of all global car sales, and fuel cell vehicles (FCV) will have a 3-percent share of the global car market.

By 2050, electric vehicle (EV) sales each year will clock in at 62 million units, and the total global EV fleet will be 700 million, according to Wood Mackenzie. 

EV sales are set to accelerate with many major economies incentivizing green recovery from the pandemic and pledging net-zero emission targets by 2050. Some major economies have also moved to ban sales of new gasoline and diesel cars at some point by 2050. The UK, for example, banned the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars from 2030, ten years earlier than initially planned.  

In the United States, GM said last month it was going all-in toward an all-electric future, aiming to eliminate all tailpipe emissions from new light-duty vehicles by 2035 as part of a wider strategy to become a carbon-neutral business by 2040.

Global sales of EV and plug-ins surged last year despite the pandemic.

“Emissions regulations in western Europe were successful in doubling EV adoption despite the crippling coronavirus pandemic. This provides a roadmap for other countries and regions with similar goals to stimulate EV sales growth,” Ram Chandrasekaran, Wood Mackenzie Principal Analyst, said.

Despite the expected dominance of EVs within three decades, global oil demand from light-duty vehicles is projected to drop by just 24 percent, according to the analyst.

“Slow erosion of ICE stock and an increased demand from emerging economies are the main reasons for this lethargic drop,” said Chandrasekaran.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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  • zorro zorro on February 10 2021 said:
    2047?? Who exactly is going to be making those internal combustion engine cars? A start-up company, kind of like a retro Tesla?

    - Honda will no longer sell ICE cars in Europe starting in 2022.

    - Japan is banning ICE cars in 2035, likewise California.

    - GM's target is 2035.

    - Volkswagen, 2026.

    - Toyota, 2040.

    - Ford lags, but only sells two cars in the US now, and is on board in California.

    - Hyundai, 2040.


    By 2047 it seems likely zero ICE cars will be made. So . . .
  • James Hilden-Minton on February 10 2021 said:
    So WoodMac is assuming that BEV sales will only grow an average of 12% per year for the next 20 years (2.14M in 2020 to 62M in 2050). What is this based on? BEVs grew 31% last year, which was a lousy year for auto sales generally. Meanwhile the cost of BEV batteries keeps falling 20% each year, which means we are only a few years away from BEVs having lower sticker prices than comparable ICE vehicles. It's hard to imagine why BEV sales growth should slow to 12% when they are cheaper, cleaner and a lot more fun than dad's old gasmobile.

    How we suppose BEVs just continue to grow at about 30% for the next few years? This gets to 65M BEVs sold as early as 2033. That's 17 years sooner to 62M than WoodMac is imagining. The point is WoodMac is painting a wildly optimistic future for legacy ICE technology and the industries that supply it. Historical growth rates simply do not support such slow growth rates as a mere 12%/y.

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