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What will Happen to the Economy in 2013?

Note: Sometimes it is useful to jot down a few thoughts on how the economy is expected to perform. This isn't to test my forecasting skills; sometimes I learn more when I get something wrong!

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Some years I make some big out-of-consensus calls, but my forecasts this year are mostly in line with the consensus.

Earlier I posted some questions for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2013. I'll try to add some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.

2) Economic growth: Heading into 2013 there are still significant downside risks from the European financial crisis and from U.S. fiscal policy. Will the U.S. economy grow in 2013? Or will there be another recession?

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