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Wall Street Doesn’t See Tesla Reaching Model 3 Production Target

Elon Musk

Wall Street analysts don’t think that Tesla will have reached its goal of manufacturing 5,000 Model 3s per week by the end of June, according to a Bloomberg survey of eight analysts.

Since 2017, Tesla has already pushed back twice that coveted 5,000-a-week Model 3 production rate, with the latest deadline set for the end of June, tomorrow.

In early June, Elon Musk told the annual stockholders’ meeting that it was “quite likely” that Tesla could start building 5,000 Model 3s a week by the end of this month.

Tesla is expected to report production and delivery figures before the July 4 holiday. Wall Street analysts and a Tesla Model 3 production tracker set up by Bloomberg don’t see it making the 5,000 number. As of June 28, Bloomberg Tracker’s Trend forecast for next week a Model 3 weekly production rate at around 4,500 vehicles.

Out of the Wall Street firms Bloomberg polled about Tesla’s production rate, only Evercore ISI gave a weekly estimate—at 4,600 in the final week of June—400 short of Musk’s target.

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino, who has been bearish on Tesla for years, wrote in a note to clients that the EV maker might once again fail to meet its production deadline for the Model 3.

Related: U.S. Oil Exports Overtake OPEC’s Number 3

Commenting on the Goldman note, Musk wrote in a companywide email to Tesla employees that “They are in for a rude awakening :)”, according to a copy of the email that Bloomberg News has obtained.

Not all analysts polled by Bloomberg were bearish on Tesla like Goldman Sachs’s Tamberrino.

According to Robert Cihra at Guggenheim, who has a ‘buy’ rating and a $430 price target on Tesla, “While 6 months later than projected, we continue to estimate that 5,000/week bogey then setting up Tesla’s overall model to flip from sizable cash burn in first half of 2018 to profitability in second half, as Model 3 volumes drive big revenue, margin and free cash flow leverage off the big fixed-cost structure Tesla has been building.”

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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  • David Jones on June 30 2018 said:
    Even if it is not 5000 exactly, it's almost certain at this point that it will be in the range of 4000-5000 for the final week or even couple of weeks. This amount of 70-80kWh EV production is unprecedented in terms of medium range EVs and amounts for a total production exceeding 200k medium range EVs and potentially approaching 250k this year even without further production increases (my guess is that they will continue to ramp production throughout the year and may approach 8000 per week by the end of December assuming there is space to expand).

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