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The U.S.-China trade war is battering what was a fast-growing business for U.S. oil producers until a few months ago—U.S. crude oil shipments to China have “totally stopped” in recent weeks, the president of China Merchants Energy Shipping Co (CMES) told Reuters on Wednesday.
Since the middle of this year, the U.S. and China have been imposing tariffs on each other’s goods, escalating the row with tit-for-tat tariffs on billions of U.S. dollars worth of goods.
The latest escalation included China slapping a 10-percent tariff on U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) last month.
China has so far spared crude oil from tariffs. Chinese refiners may have been relieved by Beijing’s decision to remove U.S. crude oil from the list of goods in the tariff tit-for-tat, but they are staying away from purchases of U.S. crude as refiners and traders fear that the removal is only temporary, and China may slap tariffs on U.S. crude if the trade war further escalates.
“We are one of the major carriers for crude oil from the U.S. to China. Before (the trade war) we had a nice business, but now it’s totally stopped,” CMES president Xie Chunlin told Reuters on the sidelines of a global maritime forum in Hong Kong on Wednesday.
U.S. crude oil exports to China, which only started in 2016 after the U.S. removed restrictions on crude exports, have been rising over the past year to hit a record 510,000 bpd in June 2018, before easing to 384,000 bpd in July, according to the latest available EIA data.
According to Refinitiv Eikon ship tracking data, U.S. crude oil shipments to China plunged in September to just 600,000 barrels in the month, compared to 9.7 million barrels for the month of August.
Meanwhile, China is looking to replace U.S. crude oil because of the trade war, and is buying crude from West Africa at the highest level in seven years, according to Bloomberg data. Chinese refiners have purchased 1.71 million bpd of crude oil from West Africa for October loadings, the highest since at least August 2011 when Bloomberg started to compile the data.
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By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews.
All China has to do is agree to stop STEALING, and fair trade. Yet they won't. They have become so arrogant they think they can do as they please. They will find out differently. We must support President Trump. Sooner or later China will agree to fair trades. The U.S. was weak, and in decline under Obama who appeased and surrendered to everyone. Trump is standing up for American jobs and higher American wages. Democrat are worthless and corrupt. Support Trump....and lets keep winning and winning.
Moreover, China could easily replace US oil shipments by increasing its imports of Iranian light crude oil thus undermining US sanctions.
President Trump should by now realize the futility of escalating trade war against China. It is a war he can’t win.
If China was hindered by rising US tariffs from selling $800-billion worth of goods annually in the US, it can sell them somewhere else as its economy is far more integrated than the US economy in the global trade system supported by its silk and belt road initiative.
The US on the other hand may have to replace Chinese imports with more expensive imports from elsewhere. This will lead to rising costs for US customers, higher inflation, widening budget deficit and rising outstanding debts by at least 2.35%. In other words, the US will be the eventual loser in a full trade war with China.
Sooner or later, the Trump administration will be forced to cut its losses by bringing to an end its trade war with China.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London
Some data after that from different sources suggests that China is still getting US crude indirectly.