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Saudi Arabia To Boost Oil Production Capacity To 13 Million Bpd in 2027

Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Aramco continues to see healthy global oil demand ahead and expects to have boosted its oil production capacity to 13 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027 from 12 million bpd now, Saudi Aramco’s chief executive Amin Nasser said on Monday.

The capacity expansion will come fully online by 2027 and will come on in chunks, Nasser said at the Energy Intelligence Forum today.

The Saudi giant, the world’s biggest oil firm and the largest oil exporter globally, is working as fast as it can to reach that production capacity expansion, the executive said, as reported by Casey Merriman, Editorial Director at Energy Intelligence.

Upstream investment has a long lead time, Nasser noted.

Aramco’s CEO has often warned the market that the industry is underinvesting in new oil supply, which, regardless of many scenarios, will continue to be needed for decades.

Currently, oil demand is strong, Nasser said at the forum, expecting 99 million bpd by the end of 2021 and more than 100 million bpd in 2022.

Moreover, one of the International Energy Agency’s scenarios of oil demand at just 24 million bpd in 2050 under one of the IEA’s net-zero pathways is “not feasible,” Aramco’s chief executive added.

“We still expect growth in oil demand,” Nasser said.

“We maintain 25-year production profiles for new projects. Our philosophy is to provide cleaner oil and gas for the long term. We are developing it for the long term, not the short term,” the top executive at the Saudi oil giant said.

Unlike the international oil majors, Aramco is not scaling back any oil and gas production plans. On the contrary, it continues to invest in new supply—saying it aims to have lower emissions—expecting solid demand ahead. Some analysts believe that Big Oil’s race to net zero would be a boon to the national oil companies of the OPEC nations as they will be the ones left to invest in new supply.


By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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  • Kay Uwe Boehm on October 04 2021 said:
    Increasements of saudi arabia are long time planned as substitution of outgoing oil on other places but also long time already gas & coal increased as substitition of oil with much more reserves but not in china etc. only nuclear or cold fusion, shooting protons or Hg in H2O side effect Hg-197 epsilon decay gold, energy is eternal cheap possible all boostable with new turbines efficiency near 100% using CO2 instead H2O steam and centrifugal compressor backflow cooling of all that way thermal isolatable instead cooled condensor no heat only electricity out from thermal input also for low heat source.turbine.
  • Mamdouh Salameh on October 04 2021 said:
    Saudi Arabia can neither boost its oil production capacity to 13 million barrels a day (mbd) by 2027 nor does it have 12-mbd capacity now. Such talk by its CEO is no wishful thinking.

    The reason is that 90% of Saudi current crude production comes from five giant oilfields Ghawar, Safaniya, Hanifa, Khurais and Zuluf all of which are more than 70 years old and are being kept producing by a huge injection of water with Ghawar accounting for 50% of the total.

    The Saudis have admitted in 2018 for the first time that Ghawar which is the cornerstone of Aramco’s oil production can only produce 3.8 mbd. If this is the case, then the persistent reports about depletion of reserves which have been circulating for years about Ghawar must be true. It is fair then to suggest that the same depletion would have also affected the other oilfields of the same age. In a nutshell, Ghawar could prove to be the Achilles heel of Saudi oil production.

    In 2008 Saudi Aramco reported that Ghawar produced 48% or 43.2 bb of its proven reserves. This meant that remaining reserves in 2008 were 46.8 bb. Between 2008 and October 4, 2021 Ghawar is estimated to have produced 25.64 bb leaving reserves of 20.87 bb.

    Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production peaked at 9.65 mbd in 2005 according to Dr Majod Al Moneef the former Saudi Governor at OPEC and has been in decline since to 8.2 mbd by 2010 and to an estimated 6.0-6.5 mbd now.

    So when Saudi Arabia says it is producing 10 mbd, only 6.0-6.5 mbd come from production and the remaining 3.5-4.0 mbd come from storage. Adding 550,000 barrels a day (b/d) by 2025 will lift Saudi production to 6.55-7.05 mbd.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

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