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Russia’s Oil Production To Drop By Just 1% This Year

Russia’s oil production this year is expected to be 1 percent lower compared to 2020, in view of the OPEC+ agreement, Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said on Thursday.

Russian oil production will reach 506 million tons by the end of this year, which would be 1 percent down from last year, the minister told reporters on the sidelines of an economic forum in Vladivostok, as carried by Russian news agency TASS.  

“Oil production is 1% lower than last year. I believe that this trend will continue. By the end of the year, it will be about 506 mln in tonnes. It will all of course depend on supply and demand, and the implementation of the OPEC agreement,” the Russian energy minister said.

Russia expects its crude oil plus condensate production to return to pre-pandemic levels by May 2022.  

In July, Russia saw its oil production rise for the first time in three months as OPEC+ continued to ease the production cuts and planned maintenance at some Russian oilfields ended.

Russian oil production is estimated to have slightly declined in August, from 10.46 million barrels per day (bpd) in July to 10.43 million bpd last month, according to Reuters estimates based on Russian energy ministry data in tons reported on Thursday.

On July 18, the OPEC+ group decided it would start returning 400,000 bpd to the market every month beginning in August until it unwinds all the 5.8 million bpd cuts.

At an uneventful meeting earlier this week, OPEC+ ministers decided on Wednesday to continue unwinding the cuts by 400,000 bpd from October, as planned. The decision came despite market concerns about slowing demand with the Delta variant surge, and despite calls from the U.S. Administration that the monthly increases of 400,000 bpd will not be enough to continue supporting the economic recovery and cool off high gasoline prices.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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