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Russia Expects To Boost Oil Production To Post-Soviet High In 2022

Russia sees raising its oil production to an average of 11.24 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022, which would be an 8-percent increase from 2021 as OPEC+ eases the production cuts, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, quoting estimates from the Russian finance ministry it had seen.

The forecast production figure was included in a draft budget estimating how much revenue Russia could gain from oil and gas between 2022 and 2024. The 11.24 million bpd estimate is very close to the 11.25 million bpd post-Soviet record that Russia pumped back in 2019.

However, the expected output includes both crude oil and condensate and does not discriminate between them. Russia’s condensate production—estimated at around 800,000 bpd-900,000—is not part of the OPEC+ production cuts, so it’s not easy to assess how much crude oil Russia is really pumping.

This year, Russia’s oil production is expected to be 1 percent lower compared to 2020, in view of the OPEC+ agreement, Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said earlier this month.

Russia expects its crude oil plus condensate production to return to pre-pandemic levels by May 2022.  

In July, Russia saw its oil production rise for the first time in three months as OPEC+ continued to ease the production cuts and planned maintenance at some Russian oilfields ended.

Russian oil production is estimated to have slightly declined in August, from 10.46 million bpd in July to 10.43 million bpd last month, according to Reuters estimates based on Russian energy ministry data in tons.

For the rest of this year, Russia is expected to boost its exports of the Urals grade from Baltic Sea ports in the fourth quarter by 2.1 percent compared to the third quarter, due to expected continued easing of the OPEC+ cuts and seasonally lower Russian refining activities, Reuters reported today, citing a shipping schedule and its own calculations.

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By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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