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IEA Sees Oil Demand Hitting 100.6 Million Bpd By End-2022

Global crude oil demand will rebound to pre-pandemic levels and exceed them, clocking in at 100.6 million barrels daily by the end of next year, the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly Oil Market Report.

This, however, will only happen “in the absence of further policy changes.”

This year, demand will grow by some 5.4 million bpd, the agency said, which next year will slow down to 3.1 million bpd.

Supply will also increase, the IEA said, with non-OPEC production growing by 1.6 million bpd next year, driven by the United States. U.S. oil production is expected to rise by over 900,000 bpd next year.

“That leaves room for OPEC+ to boost crude oil production by 1.4 mb/d above its July 2021-March 2022 target to meet demand growth,” the IEA said.

This should not be a problem for the cartel, the authority noted. Even after the group boosts output by 2 million bpd starting next month per its production control agreement, it would still leave members with a combined spare capacity of 6.9 million bpd.

The IEA earlier this year saw oil demand taking longer than a year to rebound to pre-pandemic levels. But earlier this month, its executive director Fatih Birol told Bloomberg that demand was recovering faster than previously expected. So unless OPEC+ puts additional barrels on the market on top of the plans to restore 2 million barrels per day by July, oil prices will head higher as the gap widens.

At the same time, the IEA noted in its monthly report that this forecast presents a challenge for the goals it outlined in its Net Zero by 2050 roadmap, released in May.

This roadmap notes that most pledges by countries are not yet underpinned by near?term policies and measures,” the agency said. “In the meantime, oil demand looks set to continue to rise, underlining the enormous effort required to get on track to reach stated ambitions.”

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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  • George Doolittle on June 14 2021 said:
    I do not see demand this high for oil at such a very high price *for all the things* at the moment.

    Oil demand in Europe, Japan, Great Britain and South Korea remains deminimus at the moment because prices are so high and all of that in US Dollars. I actually still believe very strongly that there is a truly stupendous bubble in commodity markets at the moment with neither gold nor silver confirming any type of "commodity Supercycle boom" in the least insofar as price is concerned but of course these prices in the United States have in fact soared but at retail this has created only marginal increases in price with in fact outside of electric vehicle prices certain select end user prices starting to fall in point of fact (electronics, optics, cameras, the display market etc.)
  • Mamdouh Salameh on June 14 2021 said:
    The IEA must be living on another planet. Why does it think Brent crude oil price has surged to $73.29 a barrel today and is on its way to $80 by the third quarter of this year? It is simply because global oil demand is already back to pre-pandemic level of 101 million barrels a day (mbd) and the oil glut in the market is over. In fact the market could face a supply deficit before the end of the year.

    The IEA is back about its hype about US shale oil production with its dubious projection that US production will rise by 900,000 barrels a day (b/d) next year.

    The fate of US shale production is in the hands of OPEC+. If ever shale drillers try by their reckless overproduction to undermine OPEC+’s efforts to stabilize the market, it will cut them to size by seeking a market share strategy thus causing crude prices to fall below shale oil breakeven price and ending with another ordeal for the shale drillers.

    The IEA is now backtracking on its ill-thought-out and ludicrous net-zero emissions 2050 roadmap by noting that most pledges by countries are not yet underpinned by near-term policies and measures. But the IEA already knew this before it published its la-la-land roadmap.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

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