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The Energy Information Administration sees Brent crude oil prices averaging $107 per barrel in the second quarter this year, according to the latest Short Term Energy Outlook published on Tuesday.
Brent crude prices averaged $105 per barrel in April.
The EIA sees prices dipping in the second half of the year to $103 per barrel, according to the STEO, before falling to an average of $97 per barrel next year—more than double the average price for 2020.
However, the EIA cautioned that it made these projections on May 5, prior to any EU ban on Russian oil imports, which, the EIA says, would raise prices further.
For WTI crude, the EIA estimates that the full-year 2022 price will average $98.20, slipping to $93.24 next year.
U.S. crude oil production will average 11.9 million bpd in 2022, up just 700,000 from the average last year. Next year, however, the EIA sees the increase as much more substantial, averaging 12.8 million bpd in 2023—achieving a new record.
The EIA prefaced its projections by saying, “The May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty resulting from a variety of factors, including Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”
The EIA pegged April 2022 global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels at 97.4 million barrels per day—an increase of 2.1 million bpd from last April. Full-year 202 consumption is expected to average 99.6 million bpd—a 200,000 bpd decrease from its April STEO.
The EIA estimates that gasoline prices, which have recently hit new highs in the United States, will average $3.82 this year and $3.51 per gallon next year—up from $3.02 per gallon in 2021 and $2.18 per gallon in 2020.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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Julianne Geiger is a veteran editor, writer and researcher for Oilprice.com, and a member of the Creative Professionals Networking Group.