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EIA Monthly Data Shows A Dip In U.S. Oil Production

Weekly U.S. crude oil production figures by the Energy Information Administration are a closely watched data set, but monthly production figures—which lag by months—often are seen as painting a more accurate picture of true production. And the most recent data shows that U.S. crude oil production is on the decline as of February.

According to EIA data, U.S. crude oil production dipped in February to an average of 11.312 million barrels per day—a 457,000 bpd decline from November 2021. January’s average monthly production was also down, to 11.362 million bpd compared to 11.604 million bpd on average in December. In fact, the monthly data shows that production has been declining since November 2021.

And data shows that U.S. production is still a far cry from where it was in 2019 prior to the pandemic.

EIA

The weekly data that is more frequently followed due to the timely nature of the data releases does show a downtrend in January and February, but not by nearly as much.

Until the EIA published its February monthly on Friday, the only EIA production data available were weekly figures. For each of the four weeks in January, the EIA had estimated that production in the United States averaged 11.7 million bpd, 11.7 million bpd, 11.6 million bpd, and 11.5 million bpd. In February, weekly figures showed that production stood at 11.6 million bpd in each of the weeks. But using this weekly data, those figures look like an improvement on November, and February looks like a slight gain compared to January’s sliding production trend.

EIA

Weekly data shows that U.S. production has increased in March and April, and we must now wait months to learn if those figures are accurate.

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By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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  • DoRight Deikins on May 01 2022 said:
    The problem is that the EIA can not know to the last barrel, how much is produced within the time span (a week) in which they are constrained to produce their reports. Thus they use statistical methods and assumptions to attempt to accurately predict the oil produced. Many have felt for considerable time that the assumptions that EIA uses are faulty, but that is the nature of this type of statistical analysis (i.e. you can always find someone to disagree with your methods). Unfortunately the naysayers have more and more evidence to support their criticism that the assumptions are faulty.
  • Mamdouh Salameh on April 30 2022 said:
    US shale oil is a spent force. It has hardly recovered from its collapse during the pandemic. And despite attempts by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the likes of IEA and Rystad Energy to talk up production, the maximum shale oil drillers could raise their production in 2022 is 200,000-300,000 barrels a day (b/d),

    The good old days of shale oil are now well behind it. This means that US crude oil imports could only head upwards in coming years.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

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