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Following a three-year Midas Touch streak, oil trader Pierre Andurand’s main hedge fund has lost 54% so far this year, and is set to rack up more losses before the year’s end, making this the worst 12 months for the fund in its history, Bloomberg reports.
Citing an anonymous source with knowledge of the fund’s current situation, Bloomberg said the Andurand Commodities Discretionary Enhanced, which has no set limits on risk, lost approximately one-third of its value in the first quarter of this year, and approximately 26% in the second quarter.
While the third quarter saw 68% gains as oil prices briefly rose amid the chaos in the Middle East, those gains have been pared in the ongoing fourth quarter.
The Andurand Commodities Fund, another lower volatility and lower-risk fund under the Andurand umbrella, was down 10% for the year, through December 8, according to Bloomberg, but has seen gains of 287% since it was launched in 2013.
Andurand, a Frenchman, is notorious for wild oil price predictions, including this year’s prediction of $140 per barrel, forcing the oil trader to concede he had not been expecting the major output increase in the U.S.
This has taken others by surprise, as well, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), which on Thursday tweaked its demand growth outlook for 2024, boosting the forecast by 130,000 bpd, but also noting that U.S. supply growth “continues to defy expectations”. Andurand’s fund has been caught in a whirlwind of dueling oil price and oil demand forecasts, with the IEA and OPEC in disagreement, and Rystad Energy now chiming in to forecast a reduction in India’s demand growth next year, warning that post-pandemic recovery is losing momentum in the world’s biggest importers.
Andurand told Bloomberg TV in November that he had scaled back his expectations.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
Tom majored in International Business at Amsterdam’s Higher School of Economics, he is Oilprice.com's Head of Operations