• 5 hours Tesla Is “Headed For A Brick Wall”
  • 10 hours Norwegian Pension Fund Set to Divest From Oil Sands and Coal Ventures
  • 14 hours IEA: “2018 Might Not Be Quite So Happy For OPEC Producers”
  • 15 hours Goldman Bullish On Oil Markets
  • 17 hours OPEC Member Nigeria To Issue Africa’s First Sovereign Green Bond
  • 19 hours Nigeria To Spend $1B Of Oil Money Fighting Boko Haram
  • 21 hours Syria Aims To Begin Offshore Gas Exploration In 2019
  • 23 hours Australian Watchdog Blocks BP Fuel Station Acquisition
  • 1 day Colombia Boosts Oil & Gas Investment
  • 1 day Environmentalists Rev Up Anti-Keystone XL Angst Amongst Landowners
  • 2 days Venezuelan Default Swap Bonds At 19.25 Cents On The Dollar
  • 2 days Aramco On The Hunt For IPO Global Coordinators
  • 2 days ADNOC Distribution Jumps 16% At Market Debut In UAE
  • 2 days India Feels the Pinch As Oil Prices Rise
  • 2 days Aramco Announces $40 Billion Investment Program
  • 2 days Top Insurer Axa To Exit Oil Sands
  • 3 days API Reports Huge Crude Draw
  • 3 days Venezuela “Can’t Even Write A Check For $21.5M Dollars.”
  • 3 days EIA Lowers 2018 Oil Demand Growth Estimates By 40,000 Bpd
  • 3 days Trump Set To Open Atlantic Coast To Oil, Gas Drilling
  • 3 days Norway’s Oil And Gas Investment To Drop For Fourth Consecutive Year
  • 3 days Saudis Plan To Hike Gasoline Prices By 80% In January
  • 3 days Exxon To Start Reporting On Climate Change Effect
  • 3 days US Geological Survey To Reevaluate Bakken Oil Reserves
  • 4 days Brazil Cuts Local Content Requirements to Attract Oil Investors
  • 4 days Forties Pipeline Could Remain Shuttered For Weeks
  • 4 days Desjardins Ends Energy Loan Moratorium
  • 4 days ADNOC Distribution IPO Valuation Could Be Lesson For Aramco
  • 4 days Russia May Turn To Cryptocurrencies For Oil Trade
  • 4 days Iraq-Iran Oil Swap Deal To Run For 1 Year
  • 6 days Venezuelan Crude Exports To U.S. Fall To 15-year Lows
  • 7 days Mexico Blames Brazil For Failing Auction
  • 7 days Norway Allows Eni To Restart Goliat Oil Field In Barents Sea
  • 7 days Malaysia Suggests Muslim Countries Stop Trading Oil In U.S. Dollars
  • 7 days Kinder Morgan Wins Appeal To Start Trans Mountain Work
  • 7 days Mexico Cancels Deepwater JV Tender Due To Lack Of Interest
  • 7 days Oil Drillers Give Cold Shoulder To Alaska Bidding Round
  • 7 days Budweiser Bets On Tesla To Replace Its Fleet
  • 8 days Forties Pipeline And Nearby Terminal Disrupted After Oil Leak
  • 8 days Major Nigerian Union Threatens Strike After Mass Firing Of New Members

Breaking News:

Tesla Is “Headed For A Brick Wall”

Alt Text

Kurdistan Ready To Hand Over Oil For 17% Of Iraqi Budget

The Kurdistan Regional Government has…

Alt Text

Middle East Tensions Near Boiling Point

Tuesday’s GCC meeting was cut…

When Iran Negotiations Aren’t About Iran

When Iran Negotiations Aren’t About Iran

Bottom Line: What is important to understand about negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program is that is has less to do with nuclear issues than it does with the back-room diplomatic dance that has Israel, Saudi Arabia and France doing everything in their power to derail Washington’s plans.

Analysis: The overriding sentiment of the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia and China, plus Germany) nuclear talks with Iran is that the P5+1 itself isn’t ready to negotiate with Iran until they negotiate amongst themselves. At this point, Iran is barely involved in the talks, while various diplomats shuttle back and forth trying to out-maneuver each other. The French are keen to keep the money flowing from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, whose agendas with respect to Iran are aligned with Israel’s, which has plenty of influence in Paris as well. At this point it is not Iran that is jeopardizing progress for another round of talks in Geneva next week—but France, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Western mainstream media would have us believe that Washington and Paris are actually staging a very clever game of good-cop, bad-cop to force Tehran into more concessions, but this is far from the reality. The reality is that we have some very influential forces, particularly in France, who have largely sidelined President Hollande in this affair.

Here are some key figures you should be aware of who are in part controlling the diplomatic gaming over Iran.   1) Meyer Habib, a member of French parliament with an Israeli passport who also used to serve as a spokesman for Israel’s right-wing Likud in France and reportedly a close confidante of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 2) French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, who, in tandem with Habib, is attempting to derail the talks in Geneva because of security concerns for Israel

Habib and Fabius are doing Israel’s bidding here, passing messages back and forth from Tel Aviv to Paris. Those messages have contained threats, too, such as an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities if the Geneva deal went through. This was a message passed from Habib to Fabius.   What makes it particularly difficult for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is that his ability to negotiate is challenged by the fact that he has enemies inside Iran—in the form of the hardline Revolutionary Guards Corps.--who also wish to derail these talks. For this reason, details of any potential deal were to be kept secret to give Rouhani more leverage in the negotiations from an internal perspective. What Habib and Fabius succeeded in doing was revealing those secret aspects of the deal and their intention was specifically to make it difficult for Rouhani to negotiate by provoking his Iranian rivals.

The Saudis (as well as the French) are already reeling from Washington’s decision not to launch airstrikes on Syria, and the French are keen to keep the Saudis happy. At stake are massive military contracts and nuclear power plants (in countries not friendly to Iran) and other energy deals.

Recommendation: Even though Rouhani is ready to negotiate, which is a first for Iran, the geopolitical game will make it very difficult to see this through at the Geneva talks. Even Washington, in the form of John Kerry, is letting Israel, France and Saudi Arabia win this round by blaming the failure of the last round on Iran. But the deal on the table was a good one, while it lasted. The compromise was that Iran would be allowed to keep building its Arak reactor during the six months of an interim agreement but would also be able to test it using dummy fuel rods and regular water. It was the first breakthrough we have seen on this issue, but the compromise has been compromised. France—run by Saudi/Qatari money and Israeli influence—has all but destroyed the deal, and the level of Israeli influence in Washington is making it difficult to provide a counterbalance to the diplomatic gaming. However, if the talks in Geneva on 22 November fail again, this isn’t over. If the Obama administration is willing to see this through, which would mean reining certain forces in its own house, France certainly does not have the power to stop it from happening, interfere as it might. We’re still waiting for this decisive signal from Washington, though.

By. Oilprice.com Premium Editors

This report is part of our Oilprice.com Premium service. You can find more information on geopolitical intelligence, trading advice, unique energy investment opportunities and much more. Click here for more information




Back to homepage


Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News