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Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

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Oil Market Forecast & Review 9th August 2013

September crude oil futures traded sharply lower last week as long liquidation continued following the previous week’s closing price reversal top on the daily chart. The August 8 break took out the recent bottom at $102.67, changing the main trend to down and setting up the market for an eventual break into a retracement zone at $100.77 to $98.84.

The daily chart pattern suggests investors and speculators are aggressively leaving crude oil after a tremendous rally from $92.60 to $108.93, and seeking to move their capital into other markets and asset classes.

While the daily chart may be changing trend to down, the weekly chart indicates the market is merely going through a normal correction in a strong market. After breaking uptrending Gann angle support at $104.60, the market accelerated to the downside. The nearest target zone is the 50% level at $100.77 and the Fibonacci level at $98.84. Since the main trend is up on the weekly chart, longer-term traders may decide to show up in this zone to support prices.

The catalyst behind last week’s break appears to have been concerns about the Fed possibly scaling back its aggressive government bond buying by as early as September. For the most part, investors are ignoring the latest friendly trade balance news from China and shifting their focus to the U.S. economy.

The main concern for investors is the curtailing of monetary stimulus by the central bank. Many investors feel this move…

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