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Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

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Oil Market Forecast & Review 6th December 2013

The technical picture for January Crude Highly has drastically improved since we wrote last week when the market was pressing $91.77. At that time, downside momentum and selling pressure were so strong that it seemed inevitable that the market would eventually reach the June 3 to June 24 price area at $90.35 to $90.40 respectively.  With the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reporting a huge fund short position, it seemed the market was in strong enough hands to at least reach the psychological $90.00 price level before normal profit-taking and bottom-picking activity would chip away and test the resolve of the short-sellers.

This was not the case, however, as short-covering began a little earlier than anticipated when speculators dried up just a few days after the deal was reached to stem Iran’s nuclear program. The move was subtle at first which may have caught many of the weaker short-selling speculators by surprise. The idea to begin a short-covering rally during Thanksgiving holiday week now appears to be genius as the price action near the low at that time wouldn’t have been noticed because of the skewed volume levels in the market. Once the low was in at $91.77, it took just the matter of a little rumor about a drop in supply to begin the impressive short squeeze rally.

At the start of the week with crude oil speculators comfortably nestled in their short positions, many discounted the initial technical bounce as a set up for…

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