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Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

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Oil Market Forecast & Review 4th October 2013

The partial shutdown of the U.S. government this week helped drive crude oil prices lower as investors assessed the possible negative impact of this ordeal on the U.S. economy. Expectations are for it to have caused some damage, but the consensus is investors may have built into the price a 2 to 5 day shutdown. If the shutdown continues into next week or beyond, expectations are for increased volatility accompanied by further downside pressure.

Technically, December crude oil is oversold on the daily charts. This could encourage investors to regroup and consolidate while setting up for a reasonable short-covering rally over the near-term.

The short-term range is $109.70 to $100.64. A short-covering rally from current levels could trigger a retracement back to the 50% to 61.8% zone of this range at $105.17 to $106.24. This will be a critical test because investors will have to decide whether to continue to buy for an eventual test of the recent top at $109.70, or start to sell in an effort to create a secondary lower top and the start of another leg down.

The first upside target is a downtrending Gann angle at $103.70, followed by the retracement zone then another Gann angle at $106.70. All of these levels have the capability of stopping a rally with the retracement zone being the best.

As far as a forecast is concerned, there doesn’t seem to be much on the fundamental side of the equation to drive the market higher except for a possible…

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