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Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

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Oil Market Forecast & Review 17th January 2014

February crude oil consolidated on the weekly chart last week, suggesting the market may be poised for another short-covering rally. Based on the short-term range of $100.75 to $91.24, traders are anticipating a rally into the retracement zone at $96.00 to $97.12. Since the main trend is down, short-sellers are likely to show up following a test of this zone, setting up the market for another drive toward the $90.00 area.

Despite a clearly defined retracement zone and upside target, the expected rally into this zone is likely to be labored because of various resistance angles and confusing fundamentals. The first resistance is an angle from the $100.75 top at $94.75 the week-ending January 17 and $92.75 next week. This is followed by another major downtrending angle at $96.22 this week and $95.72 the week-ending January 24. Upside momentum is going to have to be strong enough to drive through these levels. Since short-covering has been the main driver of upside action recently, the rally is expected to be weak. This will leave the market in control of the bears.

Last week, the Energy Information Agency reported a seventh consecutive drop in crude supplies, but the news failed to attract any significant buying interest. A few of the weaker shorts covered, but too many concerns kept bullish investors on the sidelines. In addition, despite oversold conditions on the daily chart, there just doesn’t seem to be any solid interest on the long side at this…

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