• 3 minutes Nucelar Deal Is Dead? Iran Distances Itself Further From ND, Alarming Russia And France
  • 5 minutes Don Jr. Tweets name Ukraine Whistleblower, Eric Ciaramella. Worked for CIA during Obama Administration, Hold over to Trump National Security Counsel under Gen McCallister, more . . . .
  • 9 minutes Shale pioneer Chesepeak will file bankruptcy soon. FINALLY ! The consolidation begins
  • 12 minutes China's Blueprint For Global Power
  • 9 hours EU has already lost the Trump vs. EU Trade War
  • 43 mins Science: Only correct if it fits the popular narrative
  • 4 hours Pioneer's Sheffield in Doghouse. Oil upset his bragging about Shale hurt prices. Now on campaign to lower expectations, prop up price.
  • 6 hours ''Err ... but Trump ...?'' *sniff
  • 2 hours China's Renewables Boom Hits the Wall
  • 1 hour What are the odds of 4 U.S. politicians all having children working for Ukraine Gas Companies?
  • 16 mins Crazy Stories From Round The World
  • 17 hours Who writes this stuff? "Crude Prices Swing Between Gains, Losses"
  • 2 hours Tesla Launches Faster Third Generation Supercharger
  • 2 hours Forget out-of-date 'dirty oil' smear, Alberta moving to be world's cleanest oil industry
  • 10 hours Passerby doused with flammable liquid and set on fire by peaceful protesters
  • 1 day Haaretz article series _ Saudi Arabia: A Kingdom in Turmoil | Part 1 - Oil Empire

Breaking News:

Russia Plans To Boost Crude Oil Exports

Alt Text

How To Play A Recovery In Oil Prices?

A realistic correction in the…

Alt Text

This Supermajor Is Leading The Energy Sector

This supermajor has been standing…

Alt Text

The Worst Oil Trades Ever Made

Wall Street is full of…

Dave Forest

Dave Forest

Dave is Managing Geologist of the Pierce Points Daily E-Letter.

More Info

Premium Content

This Could Break The Coal Story Wide Open

There's a quote from Napoleon that's always stuck with me. About the nature of things coming and going:

"I feel myself driven towards an end that I do not know. As soon as I shall have reached it, as soon as I shall become unnecessary, an atom will suffice to shatter me. Till then, not all the forces of mankind can do anything against me."

Sometimes I feel like resource trends are similar. There is a period when a trend is in motion--and nothing can be done to stop it. Then gradually it begins to weaken. Until it reaches a point where even a tiny event can break it apart, sending things in a new direction.

I believe we're at that point in the coal market.

The trend has been decidedly down for coal prices and stocks the last few years. With any bullish sentiment being crushed by fears of oversupply, and a wave of negative public sentiment around the sector.

But the bull case for coal has been growing and growing. You've heard me talk about it--rising demand in India, falling export supply in most of the major producing nations.

None of this has had much effect in terms of pricing or stock valuations. Yet.

But I believe news this week may be the "atom" that shatters the down-trend. With reports suggesting that major coal producer Indonesia is on a full-out campaign against illegal exports.

The Indonesian government noted that it is changing the paperwork required by miners exporting coal. Mining companies wishing to send supplies abroad will now have to show documentation that they are in good standing with the government--having paid all royalties, and complied with environmental and other permitting.

This could be a major problem for some miners. Estimates from the government are that up to 50 million tonnes of coal may be produced illegally in the country.

Such production will now be barred from export. Potentially reducing supply out of Indonesia even further, following announced cuts in production targets last week.

This is a market on edge, and it won't take much to flip it into a fever pitch. This week's export rules could be the thing.

Here's to the times a-changing,

By Dave Forest




Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage



Leave a comment
  • presk eel pundit on February 21 2014 said:
    It could also mean that this 50 million tons of coal will be dumped on the domestic markets in Indonesia, while legitimate companies export more "legal" coal to make up for the lower domestic prices.

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News
Download on the App Store Get it on Google Play