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Jason Sen

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Technical Review of the Energy Markets - 4th March 2013

March RBOB tested the December high at 283.92/83 where we saw a possible bounce from here. We shot higher from 282.70. April needs to hold above 312 now for a test of resistance at 315/316. If we push higher look for 319, possibly 322 for a selling opportunity.

Below 312 risks a retest of 307/306 lows & good support here could hold again today. However a break lower targets 302.88.

RBOB Daily Chart 04.03.13
Click to enlarge.

Gasoil tested strong support at 920.25/918.75. Here we predicted a low for the week & the exact low was 917.25. Being so over sold a bounce is very likely from this point & above 926 we can target Friday’s high of 930 then Fibonacci resistance at 935.78. Watch for a high here at this stage. However a break higher could find tough resistance at 944.27/947.24.

Support at 918.75/917.25 is expected to hold again today if tested. However if we break lower look for 911.75.

Gasoil Daily Chart 04.03.13
Click to enlarge

Natural Gas held support at 3.390 but will need to beat 3.460 resistance for another test of
3.52/3.554 highs. It is unlikely we can push through here today as this is 10 month trend line resistance & we are getting quite over bought, but a break would target 3.592/613.

Below 3.453 support we should retest 3.399/386 support. A break lower today would not be a surprise & should target 3.339/315 where we could expect to see a bounce. If however we move below 3.320 we should fill the gap at 3.294/289 & find excellent support here.

Natural Gas Daily Chart 04.03.13
Click to enlarge

WTI Crude Oil broke the 100 day & 21 week moving average support at 90.90/80 to test the 200 day MA at 90.40 & up trend line at 90.25. As stated on Friday this should be a buying opportunity & we have held on here. We are severely oversold on daily & shorter term charts & it is no longer safe to run shorts. Only a close below 90.00 today would keep the market under pressure for 89.47.

Today we are looking for the end of the 4 week sell off. A return to 91.10/20 is expected and
above here we look for 91.75/95. This should be the limit for today & we would expect a drift lower from here but any shorts need a stop above 92.30 for 92.77, possibly 93.12.

WTI Crude Daily Chart 04.03.13
Click to enlarge

Brent continued lower to hit trend line support at 109.81 & we bottomed exactly here. We are now severely over sold on daily & shorter term charts so we are looking for a bounce today back up to 110.76 & possibly 111.25. Above here look for 111.65 & then 112.00/13. This should be as far as we make it in the early part of the week.

109.82 remains good support this week but any longs will need stops below the 200 day moving average at 109.11 for 108.66 then 108.13

Brent Daily Chart 04.03.13
Click to enlarge

By. Jason Sen


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