WTI Crude Oil retested resistance at 93.40 & held as expected. Today there is a much better chance that we can break higher to reach 94.30/50 & we could even stretch towards 95.01 which should provide a good selling opportunity with a top expected.
Support at 92.18/92 could hold again if retested with the very short term picture more positive for today at least. The daily outlook remains weak however & so a break should target 91.58 & a floor likely if tested this week. If we break 91.10 however look for 100 day & 21 week moving average support at 90.90/80. Below here 200 day MA at 90.43 then the up trend line at 90.00 should be a buying opportunity at this stage.
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Brent could not make it through 113.16 resistance & broke lower to hit the target of 111.96/72. This is strong Fibonacci support plus 100 day moving average & as predicted it has provided a floor. There is a very good chance we push higher from here today to target 112.65 & possibly as far as 113.26/41. Look for a top here today but be ready to go with a break above 113.80 for 114.26/50.
Just below 111.96/72 support we have the 3 month uptrend line at 111.30 so longs will only need stops if we break significantly below here.
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Natural Gas did push through 3.480 as hoped to hit the 3.534 target. We over ran just a little to 3.554 but then turned lower. We have bounced off support at 3.390 & if we can hold above 3.460 we could go for another test of 3.534/3.554 highs. It is unlikely we can push through here today as this is 10 month trend line resistance but a break would target 3.592/613.
Support at 3.399/386 could hold a move lower again but a break then targets 3.339/315 where we would expect to see a bounce. If however we move below 3.320 we should fill the gap at 3.294/289 & find excellent support here.
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Gasoil bounced but failed below 961.94 & then unexpectedly collapsed again through 941.03 to 936.75. Today we are trading below the 8 month up trend line at 943 & the 200 day moving average at 941. We are very over sold in the short term but we can still continue lower & on a break of 936.50 look for 933 then 930/928. Failure here targets good support at 926.80 but failure here could then see us test strong support at 920.25/918.75. Here we would hope to see a low for the week if tested.
Being so over sold a bounce from 936.75 is certainly possible & should find 950.67. This may cap but if we can push higher look for 959.04/43. This is tough Fibonacci resistance & 100 day moving average.
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March RBOB is just testing the 200 day moving average at 284.13 & the December high at 283.92/83. It is possible we see a bounce from here although we are not severely oversold & it is dangerous to try to pick a bottom at this stage. If we continue lower we look for a test of the 2 month trend line at 259.94. Failure here however finds the 21 week & 100 day moving average at 280.57/45 then good Fibonacci support at 279.37/278.80.
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Resistance at 287.39 but above here we could stretch to 293.03, possibly 295/296.
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By. Jason Sen
