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Technical Review of the Energy Markets - 28th February 2013

Technical Review of the Energy Markets - 28th February 2013

WTI Crude Oil retested resistance at 93.40 & held as expected. Today there is a much better chance that we can break higher to reach 94.30/50 & we could even stretch towards 95.01 which should provide a good selling opportunity with a top expected.

Support at 92.18/92 could hold again if retested with the very short term picture more positive for today at least. The daily outlook remains weak however & so a break should target 91.58 & a floor likely if tested this week. If we break 91.10 however look for 100 day & 21 week moving average support at 90.90/80. Below here 200 day MA at 90.43 then the up trend line at 90.00 should be a buying opportunity at this stage.  

WTI Crude Daily Chart 28.02.13
Click here to enlarge.

Brent could not make it through 113.16 resistance & broke lower to hit the target of 111.96/72. This is strong Fibonacci support plus 100 day moving average & as predicted it has provided a floor. There is a very good chance we push higher from here today to target 112.65 & possibly as far as 113.26/41. Look for a top here today but be ready to go with a break above 113.80 for 114.26/50.

Just below 111.96/72 support we have the 3 month uptrend line at 111.30 so longs will only need stops if we break significantly below here. 

Brent Daily Chart 28.02.13
Click here to enlarge.

Natural Gas did push through 3.480 as hoped to hit the 3.534 target. We over ran just a little to 3.554 but then turned lower.  We have bounced off support at 3.390 & if we can hold above 3.460 we could go for another test of 3.534/3.554 highs. It is unlikely we can push through here today as this is 10 month trend line resistance but a break would target 3.592/613.

Support at 3.399/386 could hold a move lower again but a break then targets 3.339/315 where we would expect to see a bounce. If however we move below 3.320 we should fill the gap at 3.294/289 & find excellent support here. 

Natural Gas Daily Chart 28.02.13
Click here to enlarge.

 Gasoil bounced but failed below 961.94 & then unexpectedly collapsed again through 941.03  to 936.75. Today we are trading below the 8 month up trend line at 943 & the 200 day moving average at 941. We are very over sold in the short term but we can still continue lower & on a break of 936.50 look for 933 then 930/928. Failure here targets good support at 926.80 but failure here could then see us test strong support at 920.25/918.75. Here we would hope to see a low for the week if tested.

Being so over sold a bounce from 936.75 is certainly possible & should find 950.67. This may cap but if we can push higher look for 959.04/43. This is tough Fibonacci resistance & 100 day moving average.

Gasoil Daily Chart 28.02.13
Click here to enlarge.

 March RBOB is just testing the 200 day moving average at 284.13 & the December high at 283.92/83. It is possible we see a bounce from here although we are not severely oversold & it is dangerous to try to pick a bottom at this stage. If we continue lower we look for a test of the 2 month trend line at 259.94. Failure here however finds the 21 week & 100 day moving average at 280.57/45 then good Fibonacci support at 279.37/278.80.

Resistance at 287.39 but above here we could stretch to 293.03, possibly 295/296.

RBOB Daily Chart 28.02.13
Click here to enlarge.

By. Jason Sen




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