Gasoil continued the downtrend to test the low for 2012 at 897.00. This level is of major importance as it is also the 4 year trend line support and as such we could expect a low for the 6 week down trend here. We have suffered severe losses but are now oversold so it is too risky to continue to run shorts. If we are correct and the market does bottom here look for 906.40 this week & possibly 912.68.
Longs will need a wide stop below 892 as this is such a major long term support area. A break then spells serious trouble for this market and could then target 884.75.
Natural Gas did not make it to 8.847 & surprised with a move back up through 3.966 to reach 3.976. However we have held below our stop loss level of 4.050 and could drift back to 3.924/917. Bears need the market back below here or we risk another move towards this week’s
high. If we do continue lower, look for another test of 3.869/855 support & a good chance of a low for the day again. However a break of 3.834 could keep the pressure on for excellent support and a buying opportunity at 3.778/377.
Resistance at 3.966/976 but shorts need a stop above 4.050 for 3.413/414 as the next upside target.
WTI Crude tried to break 93.72/94 resistance but topped at 94.09 & fell all the way back to support at 92.18 bottoming out just below at 92.09. This marks the end of the bounce off the trend line at 89.33 and could signal another test of this trend line & 200 day moving average support at 90.50/20 in the days to follow.
However for today we have resistance at 92.68 but above here we could make it to 93.02. Watch for a top here but if we push on through here we may reach 93.47/54.
We have support at 91.82/76. With prices likely to come under further pressure we could break lower today for 91.40/28 but a good chance of a low here. Longs need a stop below 91.00 for 90.89/83 & possibly 90.52.
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By. Jason Sen
