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Technical Review of the Energy Markets - 16th May 2013

Brent Crude did break lower & we did see a test of 101.30 but just held on here & suddenly shot higher to resistance at 103.80/104.25 for a selling opportunity. We could head lower again today towards 102.50/30 with a break below 102.00 then signalling further losses towards yesterday’s low at 101.50/20. A break lower could then target 100.30/20. 

Brent Crude Oil Update - 16.05.13
(Click to enlarge.)

103.80/104.25 offers a selling opportunity again today but use stops above 104.80 for a retest of
105.95/106.05 highs. This should hold again this week so we could exit longs & try shorts with
stops above 106.50 for a test of March lows at 106.80.

WTI Crude headed lower as expected but broke good support at 92.80/75 to bottom at 92.13.

We then shot higher to the 94.45 resistance level & topped out. We could head lower again today so look for 93.64 then good support at 92.80/75. A break below here is possible & targets yesterday’s low & the 200 day moving average at 92.17/13. Below here today then sees good support at 91.60/40 Resistance at 94.45/50 could hold the topside so should be worth trying shorts here with stops above 95.00. Above here 95.50/70 should be a challenge but if we manage a break higher we could head towards last week’s high of 97.17. We then hit 3 month trend line resistance at 97.53 & April highs at 97.80. We should fail with in this 97.17/80 band.

WTI Crude Oil Update - 16.05.13
(Click to enlarge.)

RBOB Gasoline headed lower towards 276.45/30 which was expected to hold the downside & we shot higher from 277. This move was a surprise as we close in on 288/288.85 highs & 200 day moving average. We are overbought in the short term & on daily charts so from here up to strong Fibonacci resistance at 289.50/291 we have a selling opportunity to exit longs & try shorts. Stops needed above the 100 day moving average at 292. A break higher then targets 294.91, possibly
297.76.

RBOB Update - 16.05.13
(Click to enlarge.)

First support at 284/282.50 but below 281 keeps the market under pressure for 278.80 then support again at 277/276.

Natural Gas broke resistance at 4.015/034 as predicted to test strong resistance at 4.110/130 today. Try shorts here as we are overbought now in the short term but we need stops above 4.170 for continued strength up to resistance at 4.234/250.

Natural Gas Update - 16.05.13
(Click to enlarge.)

We could now drift back to support at 4.034/015 & if this does not hold the downside we could stretch to 3.940. We could exit shorts & try longs here but be ready to add to any longs down to 3.883 lows & a buying opportunity here.

Gasoil hit our target of 846/844 where we predicted a bounce & this marked the exact low. We shot back up towards resistance at 866 which should hold the topside today. Use 863/66 to exit longs & try shorts with stops above 867 for a retest of last week’s high at 871/872. We should struggle here with the market overbought on daily charts but need stops above 875.

Gasoil Update - 16.05.13
(Click to enlarge.)

A drift back to 852 is possible today then 846/44 once again. This is good support but any longs need a stop below 840 for 831/28.

By. Jason Sen


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