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Technical Review of the Energy Markets - 12th February 2013

Technical Review of the Energy Markets - 12th February 2013

WTI Crude Oil tested good support at 95.05/94.90 & shot higher straight to 96.90/97.10 resistance. If this continues to hold a bearish topping pattern remains in place and we should head back to 96.56 then 96.288/18. Below here look for 95.72/67 then good support again at 95.05/94.90. A break lower today confirms the bearish topping pattern with 94.40 targeted then 94.05/90. Below here we should see 93.26 but we do expect to see 91.72 before we bottom out in the days to come.

WTI Crude Daily Chart 12.02.13
Click to enlarge.

However a break above 97.21 takes us to 97.50, possibly a retest of 98.15/25 highs.

March Brent held Friday’s range below 119.07/17. Below 118.02 we could test yesterday’s low at 117.54 then better support at 117.30. However failure here targets 116.88/72 which should hold the low. If we break lower though look for excellent support at 116.21.

Brent Daily Chart 12.02.13
Click to enlarge.

119.07/17 remains tough resistance but a break could then target 119.80/120.00.

Gasoil held Friday’s range, below 1030. The 1029/32 band is a crucial area as it is also 21 month trend line resistance in a severely over bought market. Even in this bull market there is a risk of a top here. A close above 1032 is now needed to continue the run to 1037 then 2012 highs of 1045 where bulls could run in to a big obstacle.

Gasoil Daily Chart 12.02.13
Click to enlarge.

If 1029/32 remains unbeatable we should not see a big sell off just yet but should bounce around with in a range while we take a rest & get ready for the next big move. Initial support is 1025/24 but below here 1019 which managed to hold the downside yesterday but 1016/15 below could provide a floor today. Longs need a stop below 1011 for 1006.   

Nat Gas held tested last week’s low at 3.207 & bounced to our first target of 3.293. This has also marked the high so far a but a break above 3.305 could see us achieve 3.327/330 next. If we keep going look for 3.359 which should see us top out for today. 

Natural Gas Daily Chart 12.02.13
Click to enlarge.

Support at 3.265 could hold any profit taking but below 3.250 risks a retest of 3.207. This should hold the downside again if tested with 5 month trend line support here.

March RBOB has been hovering in a range from 298 up to 307 for almost 2 weeks and we held this range again yesterday. There is a little support today at 301 but below here another test of 299/98 look likely. The daily chart is calling for a correction so watch for a break below 297 to trigger stops on longs for a move to 294.88. 

RBOB Daily Chart 12.02.13
Click to enlarge.

Resistance remains in the 306/307 area but a break &b preferably a close above here then opens the door to 309.22 which should be a very tough obstacle and could hold a rally for now.

By. Jason Sen




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