WTI Crude Oil caught us out with a break above 96.90/97.10 resistance. We reached the next target of 97.50 and are pushing on for a retest of 98.15/25 highs. Here we should top out with over bought indicators flashing in the short term & a bearish divergence on the daily chart. However we need to keep stops tight above 98.50 for continued strength up to 99.52.
Support today at 97.12 may hold a slide but below here look for 96.71. Try longs with a stop below 96.35 & look to buy in to longs again at 96.05.
March Brent is heading back to 119.07/17 highs. This remains tough resistance & the chance of a high here again but a break could then target 119.80/120.00. Here we need to exit all longs & can try shorts with a stop above 120.50.
Support if we fall back is at 118.20 but below here a good buying opportunity at 117.62/50. Use stops below 117.10.
Gasoil failed at the 1029/32 band this week as expected. As stated, this is a crucial area & we did warn of a top for the bull run here. Any longs need a stop below support at 1011 today as this risks further losses with 1000/999 the next target. Here we exit any shorts & buy in to longs in expectation of a low for this correction. Stops below 995.
The 1029/32 band should be a major obstacle again today. A close above 1032 is now needed to continue the run to 1037 then 2012 highs of 1045 where bulls could run in to a big obstacle.
Nat Gas is testing 5 month trend line support at 3.220 today. We can try longs here with a stop below this week’s low at 3.207 as we look for an end to the recent weakness now.
We then look for a move above 3.265 to 3.301. A push through yesterday’s high of 3.314 then targets 3.330 but there is scope to test 3.359 resistance this week.
March RBOB has been hovering in a range from 298 up to 307 for 2 weeks and we held this range again yesterday. There is a little support today at 301 but below here another test of 299/98 look likely. The daily chart is calling for a correction so watch for a break below 297 to trigger stops on longs for a move to 294.88.
Resistance remains in the 306/307 area but a break & preferably a close above here then opens the door to 309.22 which should be a very tough obstacle and could hold a rally for now.
By. Jason Sen