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Jason Sen

Jason Sen

Jason Sen began his career at the age of 19 in the options pits, market making his own account as a ‘local’ on the trading…

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Technical Review for the Energy Markets - 22nd February 2013

WTI Crude Oil hit our first target for the April contract of 92.85/82 & bottomed only a little lower at 92.63. We expect the bounce to continue over the next 2 session to target 93.92 & then 94.72. This is only a correction in what should be a developing down trend & therefore we may want to exit longs here. If we manage to push any higher we can test trend line resistance at  95.15, possibly Fibonacci at 96.02.

Support at 92.80/60 could be expected to hold again today but longs need a stop below 92.40 as we can then target 91.99 & possibly 91.52/30.

WTI Crude Daily Chart 22.02.13
Click here to enlarge.

Brent collapsed as predicted to hit the target of 113.67 & we continued just a little lower to 113.32. Today we expect a bounce & above 114.31 we should target 114.69. This could be a problem & take a while to overcome but eventually we should push on for 115.40/60.  This should hold a bounce over the next 2 session so we will be looking to enter shorts here with a stop above 115.95.

Good support in the 113.65/35 band is expected to hold the downside today but if we do break lower look for 113.07 then 112.70/60. Here we should see a floor but longs need a stop below 112.30.

Brent Daily Chart 22.02.13
Click here to enlarge.

Gasoil continued lower as predicted to hit our target of 981/979. We expected this to offer an excellent buying opportunity with a low for the correction expected here.  We did over run slightly to 976 but have bounced as hoped. We expect to see run back up to 989/990 today & here we may top out for the weekend but if we can push higher look for 998/999. This should cap the bounce with the longer term picture looking negative now & a sell off expected again next week.

The 980/77 band is expected to hold again today if tested but a break should pressure for 971. Below here we have excellent support at 966/964.

Gasoil Daily Chart 22.02.13
Click here to enlarge.

Natural Gas finally hit the 3.320/328 target where we predicted a high & we topped just above at 3.337. We are now below 3.250 & expect a test of 3.20. Below here there is little to stop a retest of February lows at 3.140/125. Just below at 3.010/085 is 200 day MA, daily & weekly Fibonacci support & mid Jan lows so we should bottom here. Worth exiting shorts & trying longs with a stop below 3.050.      

Any targets resistance at 3.290 & 3.313.

Natural Gas Daily Chart 22.02.13
Click here to enlarge.

March RBOB hit the target of 298.90/298.60 & bounced. If we can hold above 305 we look for 307.35 & possibly 309/310 but doubtful we can push any higher on this bounce.  The daily picture has turned negative & we could expect a heavy sell off next week after this rally.

Support at 305 then 303/302 but below here a retest of 300/298 support & low again today is very possible. If we cannot bounce from here however look for 293.35/00 & what should be a very good buying opportunity with a low here expected this week if tested.

RBOB Daily Chart 22.02.13
Click here to enlarge.

Spot Gold did make low for the correction as hoped & bounced back to 1585 as predicted. This is proving a struggle to overcome as we had expected but a push higher should happen today to target 1604/05, possibly as far as 1611/12 but this should be the top at this stage.

Any sell off is unlikely to see us fall as far as 1555 now. If we do test this level it should be a very good buying opportunity but we will need to keep stops tight below here as a break could see 1548/46. If this support breaks there really is very little to stop a move towards 1533 with 1531/27 the next area of support. This area is the low for 2012 and as such should be a welcome buying opportunity. 

By. Jason Sen




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