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Technical Review for the Energy Markets - 18th February 2013

Technical Review for the Energy Markets - 18th February 2013

WTI Crude Oil was predicted to sell off on Friday & we saw sharp losses for a retest of Feb lows at 95.06/94.97. We bounced just above here & with short term oscillators flashing over sold we could hold this support if tested again today.  We are looking for a move towards resistance at 96.17, possibly 96.54 above. If we push higher we expect a high at 96.90/97.00, & are looking to sell in to shorts here with a stop above 97.50.

Longs need a tight stop below 94.70 however as the daily outlook remains weak & a break lower targets 94.20 then 93.80/70 & much better support below at 93.10/92.90.

WTI Crude Daily Chart 18.02.13
Click to enlarge.

Brent had a correction on Friday just as predicted testing 116.19 support and bounce from a low of 116.28. We have made it back to tough resistance at 118.04/15. This may prove unbeatable today & further losses are expected this week. However above here we have a gap to close & tough resistance at 118.42/51. If we manage to keep pushing higher we hit Feb highs at 119.12/17 which are expected to hold on a retest.

Support at 117.60/40 then 117.05/116.95 below. A move lower however risks another test of 116.28/19. Good chance of a low here again today with further strong support just below at 115.88/83.

Brent Daily Chart 18.02.13
Click to enlarge.

Gasoil hit our target of 1000/999 as predicted. Here we exited shorts to buy in to longs in expectation of a low for this correction. This worked perfectly with a bounce off exactly 999.

So the range has been established from 1000/999 up to 1029/32. Resistance along the way is at 1011 then 1015 with 1019 likely to cap today. However above here look for 1024/25. A close above 1032 today is now needed to continue the bull run to 1037 then 2012 highs of 1045 where bulls could run in to a big obstacle.

Support at 1006 but below here risks another test of good support at 1000/99 and a bounce likely. Stops needed however below 996 for 989 as the next target. 

Gasoil Daily Chart 18.02.13
Click to enlarge.

Natural Gas has support around the 200 day moving average at 3.095/085. We also have daily & weekly Fibonacci support and mid Jan lows so this is an important level & we should bottom here. Worth exiting shorts & trying longs with a stop below 3.050.      

Resistance today is seen at 3.172 but above here 3.200/202 looks unlikely to be broken. However if we do push higher look for 3.224, possibly 3.245/250 for an excellent selling opportunity.

Natural Gas Daily Chart 18.02.13
Click to enlarge.

March RBOB has embarked on the next leg of the bull run which should target 320 & probably as far as 323.89. We did find support at 310.18 as hoped on Friday but today we have support at 312.11 which should hold a slide. However below here 309.46 is likely to provide a floor & an excellent buying opportunity for today if tested.

Last week’s high of 316.39 is resistance but a break targets 320.50.

RBOB Daily Chart 18.02.13
Click to enlarge.

Spot Gold has collapsed breaking 1617/16 to hit 1598.23. The bounce is now testing resistance at 1619/1621. This should be tough to beat but a push higher targets 1626 with any further strength then likely to target 1633/35 for an excellent selling opportunity.

If we cannot get through 1619/21 look for a test of support at 1611/10. A move below 1609 then risks a test of last week’s low at 1598. If we cannot hold on here today then look for a break to target 1595 & then 1590 below but there is scope for a test of 1585 this week in this 4 month down trend. 

By. Jason Sen




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