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Jason Sen

Jason Sen

Jason Sen began his career at the age of 19 in the options pits, market making his own account as a ‘local’ on the trading…

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Technical Review for the Energy Markets - 14th February 2013

WTI Crude Oil went for a retest of 98.15/25 highs where we expected prices to top out with over bought indicators flashing in the short term & a bearish divergence on the daily chart. The high was 98.11 so this worked pretty much as expected and we took a tumble to 96.71 support and bounced from here. Today any rally through resistance at 97.37 up to 98.00/24 is seen as a selling opportunity again. However we need to keep stops tight above 98.50 for continued strength up to 99.52.

Below 96.21 we should test 96.63/53 support but below here we see 96.17. This may hold the downside today but watch for a break to target 95.75/65 and then 95.06/94.97.

WTI Crude Daily Chart 14.02.13
Click to enlarge.

March Brent failed at 119.07/17 highs as expected and we now have a small bearish double top pattern. We are now trading the April contract which should test good support at 117.65/55 this morning. If we cannot hold here then look for 117.10 & possibly 116.66/61 today to cover all shorts & look for a bounce.

Above 118.19 we have a roll over gap to fill at 118.42 which should mark the high for today. However above here resistance at 119.00/17 again. A break is not expected but would then target 119.80/120.00. Here we need to exit all longs & can try shorts with a stop above 120.50.

Brent Daily Chart 14.02.13
Click to enlarge.

Gasoil failed at the 1029/32 band this week as expected. As stated, this is a crucial area & we did warn of a top for the bull run here. Any longs need a stop below support at 1011 today as this risks further losses with 1000/999 the next target. Here we exit any shorts & buy in to longs in expectation of a low for this correction. Stops below 995. 

We have some resistance at 1016/17 today but a above here the 1029/32 band should be a major obstacle again today. A close above 1032 is now needed to continue the run to 1037 then 2012 highs of 1045 where bulls could run in to a big obstacle.

Gasoil Daily Chart 14.02.13
Click to enlarge.

Nat Gas bounced right off the 5 month trend line support at 3.220 as expected, where we bought in to longs & this trade worked well as we hit 3.314 & got very close to the target of 3.330. If we push through here today there is scope to test 3.359 resistance this week.

Support today seen at 3.265 and this may hold any drift lower but a break could then allow another test of 3.235/30 trend line support. We can try longs here again, with a stop below this week’s low at 3.207 as we look for an end to the recent weakness now.

Natural Gas Daily Chart 14.02.13
Click to enlarge.

March RBOB tried to break higher but failed at 308.50 before quickly falling back to support at 303.38. This support may hold again if tested today but below here look for 302.17. A break could then take us down to 300.44. 

We will need to see prices back above 306.10 for a chance to test resistance in the 307/308 area. A break & preferably a close above here is unlikely but does open the door to 309.22 which should be a very tough obstacle and could hold a rally for now.

RBOB Daily Chart 14.02.13
Click to enlarge.

Spot Gold fell just short of 1656/57 resistance where we expected a top. We have now retested the 1641/39 support & bounced as hoped, so we have a small bottoming pattern which should push us higher in to the end of the week. First target is 1649/50 then yesterday’s high at 1653.   
Above here today we look for a test of 1656/57 resistance & a high for the day. However a break higher tomorrow is possible for 1661. A push above here then targets 1666 resistance & a selling opportunity. 

1641/39 is good support & we may bounce from here again today but a break signals a move to 1635, possibly a test of December lows at 1627/26.    

By. Jason Sen


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