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Energy Market Review - 11th February 2013

Energy Market Review - 11th February 2013

WTI Crude Oil is setting it self up for a big fall as we began to warn last week while we hold below 96.90/97.10 resistance.  We expect a break of good support at 95.05/94.90 perhaps as soon as today, to confirm the bearish topping pattern with 94.40 targeted then 94.05/90. Below here we should see 93.26 but we do expect to see 91.72 before we bottom out in the days to come.

Resistance today at 96.25/60 is likely to cap any move higher but above here risks a retest of 96.90/97.10. This must hold or the bearish pattern is broken and we should head back to 97.48, possibly retest 98.15/25 highs.

March Brent broke 117.95 to reach 119.07/17, in an unstoppable bull market that could now target 119.80/120.00.
Any profit taking should test 118.59 then 118.23 below with a good chance of a low for the day but any further weakness then finds excellent support at 118.02/117.94 for a buying opportunity with stops below 117.65. 

Gasoil broke closed the gap at 1021 to hit the next target of 1030. This is the high from the second half of 2012 & as predicted we topped out here. The 1029/32 band is a crucial area as it is also 21 month trend line resistance in  a severely over bought market. Even in this bull market there is a risk of a top here. A close above 1032 is now needed to continue the run to 1037 then 2012 highs of 1045 where bulls could run in to a big obstacle.

If 1029/32 remains unbeatable we should not see a big sell off just yet but should bounce around with in a range while we take a rest & get ready for the next big move. Initial support is 1025/24 but below here 1019, possibly 1016/15 which should provide a floor. 

Nat Gas held a narrow range as we test 3.258 support. If we see a bounce off here today we could head back to 3.293, possibly 3.323/327. Watch for a top here but go with a break above 3.349 for 3.373/387 resistance & a good selling opportunity.

However a break below 3.240 then keeps the market under pressure for a test of last week’s low at 3.207.

March RBOB has been hovering in a range from 298 up to 307 for almost 2 weeks. There is a little support today at 301 but below here another test of 299/98 look possible. The daily chart is calling for a correction so watch for a break below 297 to trigger stops on longs for a move to 294.88.

Resistance remains in the 306/307 area but a break &b preferably a close above here then opens the door to 309.22 which should be a very tough obstacle and could hold a rally for now.

By. Jason Sen




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