• 4 minutes Trump will meet with executives in the energy industry to discuss the impact of COVID-19
  • 8 minutes Charts of COVID-19 Fatality Rate by Age and Sex
  • 11 minutes Why Trump Is Right to Re-Open the Economy
  • 13 minutes Its going to be an oil bloodbath
  • 3 hours US Shale Resilience: Oil Industry Experts Say Shale Will Rise Again
  • 27 mins While China was covering up Covid-19 it went on an international buying spree for ventilators and masks. From Jan 7th until the end of February China bought 2.2 Billion masks !
  • 1 hour Marine based energy generation
  • 15 hours What If ‘We’d Adopted A More Conventional Response To This Epidemic?’
  • 2 hours China Takes Axe To Alternative Energy Funding, Slashing Subsidies For Solar And Wind
  • 5 hours Real Death Toll In CCP Virus May Be 12X Official Toll
  • 4 mins Today 127 new cases in US, 99 in China, 778 in Italy
  • 23 hours Trafigura CEO Weir says, "We will see 30% to 35% drop in demand". That amounts to 35mm bbls/day glut ! OPEC+ 10 mm cut won't fix it. It's a DEMAND problem.
  • 2 hours Which producers will shut in first?
  • 11 hours TRUMP pushing Hydroxychloroquine + Zpak therapy forward despite FDA conservative approach. As he reasons, "What have we got to lose ?"
  • 1 day The Most Annoying Person You Have Encountered During Lockdown
  • 1 day Cpt Lauren Dowsett
Frik Els

Frik Els

Frik Els is editor for MINING.com in Vancouver, BC. Frik has been writing on business for the past 15 years covering the resource industry, investment, autos,…

More Info

Premium Content

Blackstone Lists Several Events that could Surprise the Markets in 2013

Byron Wien, Vice Chairman at Blackstone Advisory Partners, one of the world's largest investment firms, has 10 predictions that may surprise markets in 2013.

Wien defines a "surprise" as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which he believes is "probable", having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.

The legendary investor has some good news for China watchers, gold bugs, commodity traders, and mining and drilling equipment manufacturers but oil players – especially Canada's oil sands – would probably struggle in a market of US crude at $70 a barrel.

Here are the highlights:

•    Iran announces it has adequate enriched uranium to produce a nuclear-armed missile and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms the claim. Sanctions, the devaluation of the currency, weak economic conditions and diplomacy did not stop the weapons program. The world must deal with Iran as a nuclear threat rather than talk endlessly about how to prevent the nuclear capability from happening.  Both the United States and Israel shift to a policy of containment rather than prevention.

•    A profit margin squeeze and limited revenue growth cause 2013 earnings for the Standard & Poor’s 500 to decline below $100, disappointing investors. The S&P 500 trades below 1300. Companies complain of limited pricing power in a slow, highly competitive world economic environment.

•    Financial stocks have a rough time, reversing the gains of 2012. Intense competition in commercial and investment banking, together with low trading volumes, puts pressure on profits. Layoffs continue and compensation erodes further. Regulation increases and lawsuits persist as an industry burden.

•    In a surprise reversal the Democrats sponsor a vigorous program to make the United States independent of Middle East oil imports before 2020. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude falls to $70 a barrel. The Administration proposes easing restrictions on hydraulic fracking for oil and gas in less populated areas and allowing more drilling on Federal land. They see energy production, infrastructure and housing as the key job creators in the 2013 economy.

•    The new leaders in China seem determined to implement reforms to root out corruption, to keep the economy growing at 7% or better and to begin to develop improved health care and retirement programs. The Shanghai Composite finally comes alive and the “A” shares are up more than 20% in 2013, in contrast with the previous year when Chinese stocks were down and some developing markets, notably India, rose.

•    Climate change contributes to another year of crop failures, resulting in grain and livestock prices rising significantly. Demand for grains in developing economies continues to increase as the standard of living rises. More investors focus on commodities as an investment opportunity and increase their allocation to this asset class. Corn rises to $8.00 a bushel, wheat to $9.00 a bushel and cattle to $1.50 a pound.

•    Although inflation remains tame, the price of gold reaches $1,900 an ounce as central bankers everywhere continue to debase their currencies and the financial markets prove treacherous.

Wien has posted a surprise list every year since 1986, when he was chief investment strategist for Morgan Stanley in the US.

By. Frederik Els


Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage






Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News