• 3 minutes Nucelar Deal Is Dead? Iran Distances Itself Further From ND, Alarming Russia And France
  • 5 minutes Don Jr. Tweets name Ukraine Whistleblower, Eric Ciaramella. Worked for CIA during Obama Administration, Hold over to Trump National Security Counsel under Gen McCallister, more . . . .
  • 9 minutes Shale pioneer Chesepeak will file bankruptcy soon. FINALLY ! The consolidation begins
  • 12 minutes China's Blueprint For Global Power
  • 1 hour Pioneer's Sheffield in Doghouse. Oil upset his bragging about Shale hurt prices. Now on campaign to lower expectations, prop up price.
  • 3 hours Who writes this stuff? "Crude Prices Swing Between Gains, Losses"
  • 30 mins Tesla Launches Faster Third Generation Supercharger
  • 1 hour Climate Change Consensus Shifts in Wind, But Gas Is Still the Right Move
  • 3 hours Passerby doused with flammable liquid and set on fire by peaceful protesters
  • 5 hours EU has already lost the Trump vs. EU Trade War
  • 8 hours Atty General Barr likely subpeona so called whistleblower and "leaker" Eric Ciaramella
  • 10 hours Iran Finds New Oil Field With Over 50 Billion Barrels: Rouhani
  • 2 hours China's Renewables Boom Hits the Wall
  • 7 hours Joe Biden, his son Hunter Biden, Ukraine Oil & Gas exploration company Burisma, and 2020 U.S. election shenanigans
  • 11 hours Iran's Master Plan?
  • 6 hours Trump On Farage's Radio Show ... #eggcarton

Breaking News:

Oil Rebounds On Surprise Crude Draw

Alt Text

How To Play A Recovery In Oil Prices?

A realistic correction in the…

Alt Text

The Worst Oil Trades Ever Made

Wall Street is full of…

Frik Els

Frik Els

Frik Els is editor for MINING.com in Vancouver, BC. Frik has been writing on business for the past 15 years covering the resource industry, investment, autos,…

More Info

Premium Content

Blackstone Lists Several Events that could Surprise the Markets in 2013

Byron Wien, Vice Chairman at Blackstone Advisory Partners, one of the world's largest investment firms, has 10 predictions that may surprise markets in 2013.

Wien defines a "surprise" as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which he believes is "probable", having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.

The legendary investor has some good news for China watchers, gold bugs, commodity traders, and mining and drilling equipment manufacturers but oil players – especially Canada's oil sands – would probably struggle in a market of US crude at $70 a barrel.

Here are the highlights:

•    Iran announces it has adequate enriched uranium to produce a nuclear-armed missile and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms the claim. Sanctions, the devaluation of the currency, weak economic conditions and diplomacy did not stop the weapons program. The world must deal with Iran as a nuclear threat rather than talk endlessly about how to prevent the nuclear capability from happening.  Both the United States and Israel shift to a policy of containment rather than prevention.

•    A profit margin squeeze and limited revenue growth cause 2013 earnings for the Standard & Poor’s 500 to decline below $100, disappointing investors. The S&P 500 trades below 1300. Companies complain of limited pricing power in a slow, highly competitive world economic environment.

•    Financial stocks have a rough time, reversing the gains of 2012. Intense competition in commercial and investment banking, together with low trading volumes, puts pressure on profits. Layoffs continue and compensation erodes further. Regulation increases and lawsuits persist as an industry burden.

•    In a surprise reversal the Democrats sponsor a vigorous program to make the United States independent of Middle East oil imports before 2020. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude falls to $70 a barrel. The Administration proposes easing restrictions on hydraulic fracking for oil and gas in less populated areas and allowing more drilling on Federal land. They see energy production, infrastructure and housing as the key job creators in the 2013 economy.

•    The new leaders in China seem determined to implement reforms to root out corruption, to keep the economy growing at 7% or better and to begin to develop improved health care and retirement programs. The Shanghai Composite finally comes alive and the “A” shares are up more than 20% in 2013, in contrast with the previous year when Chinese stocks were down and some developing markets, notably India, rose.

•    Climate change contributes to another year of crop failures, resulting in grain and livestock prices rising significantly. Demand for grains in developing economies continues to increase as the standard of living rises. More investors focus on commodities as an investment opportunity and increase their allocation to this asset class. Corn rises to $8.00 a bushel, wheat to $9.00 a bushel and cattle to $1.50 a pound.

•    Although inflation remains tame, the price of gold reaches $1,900 an ounce as central bankers everywhere continue to debase their currencies and the financial markets prove treacherous.

Wien has posted a surprise list every year since 1986, when he was chief investment strategist for Morgan Stanley in the US.

By. Frederik Els




Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage



Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News
Download on the App Store Get it on Google Play