• 3 minutes China has *Already* Lost the Trade War. Meantime, the U.S. Might Sanction China’s Largest Oil Company
  • 7 minutes Saudi and UAE pressure to get US support for Oil quotas is reportedly on..
  • 11 minutes China devalues currency to lower prices to address new tariffs. But doesn't help. Here is why. . . .
  • 15 minutes What is your current outlook as a day trader for WTI
  • 14 hours In The Bright Of New Administration Rules: Immigrants as Economic Contributors
  • 8 hours Will Uncle Sam Step Up and Cut Production
  • 1 day Movie Script: Epstein Guards Suspected Of Falsifying Logs
  • 9 hours Trump vs. Xi Trade Battle, Running Commentary from Conservative Tree House
  • 12 hours Continental Resource's Hamm (Trump Buddy) wants shale to cut production.Can't compete with peers. Stock will drop in half again.
  • 2 hours Domino Effect: Rashida Tlaib Rejects Israel's Offer For 'Humanitarian' Visit To West Bank
  • 1 day Significant: Boeing Delays Delivery Of Ultra-Long-Range Version Of 777X
  • 54 mins Gretta Thunbergs zero carbon voyage carbon foot print of carbon fibre manufacture
  • 5 hours NATGAS, LNG, Technology, benefits etc , cleaner global energy fuel
  • 2 days Kremlin Says WTO's Existence Would Be In Doubt If the U.S., Others Left
  • 2 days I think I might be wrong about a 2020 shakeout
  • 2 days China Continued Iran Oil Imports In July In Teeth of U.S. Sanctions
  • 2 days Strait Of Hormuz As a Breakpoint: Germany Not Taking Part In U.S. Naval Mission
Alt Text

Oil Markets Face Nightmare Scenario

Financial markets saw their worst…

Alt Text

Oil Trapped In Narrow Price Band

Oil prices appear to be…

Alt Text

The Bakken Oil Boom Is Facing A New Bottleneck

North Dakota oil drillers might…

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

More Info

Premium Content

Waning OPEC Compliance Threatens Oil Price Rally

Analysts cut yet again—for a sixth consecutive month—their oil price forecasts for 2017 and 2018, as the slower-than-expected rate of oil market rebalancing puts an increasing amount of pressure on OPEC’s resolve to stick with the cuts, according to 33 economists and analysts surveyed in the July Reuters poll.

According to the survey, Brent crude prices are seen averaging US$52.45 per barrel this year, lower than the US$53.96 forecast in the June poll.

For WTI, the experts now expect the price to average US$50.08 in 2017, compared to US$51.92 in the June poll.

Analysts and economists also cut their 2018 price projections, with Brent seen averaging US$54.51 next year, down from US$57.37 in the previous poll. WTI price is expected to average US$51.88 next year, a significant downward revision from the US$55.20 predicted in June.

Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the rebalancing was taking too long, and that compliance among OPEC members slipped in June to its lowest level—78 percent—since the start of the deal, as not only exempt Libya and Nigeria pumped more, but also Saudi Arabia. Although OPEC’s biggest producer stayed within the limits, according to OPEC’s secondary sources, it did not overcomply with its share of the cuts as much as it had done in previous months. Related: Europe’s Biggest Oil Refinery Shut Down After Fire

Now the analysts in the July Reuters poll have cut their oil price forecasts every month since February, this month pointing to expected fading resolve of some OPEC members to continue to cut production.

“The longer prices remain low, the greater the risk is that some OPEC countries will no longer comply with the production cuts as strictly as they have been doing so far,” Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch told Reuters.

Although Ecuador’s pulling out of the OPEC deal is likely to have a limited effect on actual cuts, the move could further dampen sentiment and other members’ resolve to continue cutting the way they had done before, according to analysts.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage


Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News
Download on the App Store Get it on Google Play