• 4 minutes Phase One trade deal, for China it is all about technology war
  • 7 minutes IRAN / USA
  • 11 minutes Shale Oil Fiasco
  • 16 minutes Swedes Think Climate Policy Worst Waste of Taxpayers' Money in 2019
  • 11 hours Indonesia Stands Up to China. Will Japan Help?
  • 4 hours Which emissions are worse?: Cows vs. Keystone Pipeline
  • 13 hours We're freezing! Isn't it great? The carbon tax must be working!
  • 14 hours Trump capitulated
  • 5 hours Thanks to Trump, the Iranian Mullahs Are Going Bankrupt
  • 18 hours Three oil pipeline projects inch toward goal-line for Canada
  • 22 hours The Libyan Oil in a Sea of Chaos, War and Disruptions
  • 2 days Trump has changed into a World Leader
  • 16 hours Yet another Petroteq debt for equity deal
  • 12 hours US Shale: Technology
  • 7 hours Prototype Haliade X 12MW turbine starts operating in Rotterdam
  • 1 day OIL & GAS LOSSES! Schlumberger Posts $10B Loss in 2019
  • 13 hours Gravity is a scam!
  • 2 days Iranian government can do everything to avoid attacking American people.
Alt Text

How Important Is The Suriname Oil Discovery?

Guyana has been the offshore…

Alt Text

Is Iran Preparing To Send Oil Back To $100?

Brent oil prices have failed…

Alt Text

Bad News For Oil: Refinery Profits Are Sliding

Oil prices are falling back…

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

More Info

Premium Content

Waning OPEC Compliance Threatens Oil Price Rally

Analysts cut yet again—for a sixth consecutive month—their oil price forecasts for 2017 and 2018, as the slower-than-expected rate of oil market rebalancing puts an increasing amount of pressure on OPEC’s resolve to stick with the cuts, according to 33 economists and analysts surveyed in the July Reuters poll.

According to the survey, Brent crude prices are seen averaging US$52.45 per barrel this year, lower than the US$53.96 forecast in the June poll.

For WTI, the experts now expect the price to average US$50.08 in 2017, compared to US$51.92 in the June poll.

Analysts and economists also cut their 2018 price projections, with Brent seen averaging US$54.51 next year, down from US$57.37 in the previous poll. WTI price is expected to average US$51.88 next year, a significant downward revision from the US$55.20 predicted in June.

Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the rebalancing was taking too long, and that compliance among OPEC members slipped in June to its lowest level—78 percent—since the start of the deal, as not only exempt Libya and Nigeria pumped more, but also Saudi Arabia. Although OPEC’s biggest producer stayed within the limits, according to OPEC’s secondary sources, it did not overcomply with its share of the cuts as much as it had done in previous months. Related: Europe’s Biggest Oil Refinery Shut Down After Fire

Now the analysts in the July Reuters poll have cut their oil price forecasts every month since February, this month pointing to expected fading resolve of some OPEC members to continue to cut production.

“The longer prices remain low, the greater the risk is that some OPEC countries will no longer comply with the production cuts as strictly as they have been doing so far,” Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch told Reuters.

Although Ecuador’s pulling out of the OPEC deal is likely to have a limited effect on actual cuts, the move could further dampen sentiment and other members’ resolve to continue cutting the way they had done before, according to analysts.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage




Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News