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Gulf Of Mexico Growth Second Only To Permian

GOM growth second only to Permian

Big projects are coming back, according to the U.S. government’s energy data compiler. Gulf of Mexico oil production is projected to have the second-largest growth among U.S. oil plays through 2018, according to a note released by the EIA.

While the U.S. shale boom, which shines particularly brightly in the Permian, has attracted the vast majority of market attention, shale plays are not the only locations of successful oil and gas operations in the country. The Gulf of Mexico is still popular enough to receive $275 million in a recent lease sale, and according to Wood Mackenzie breakevens in the region are below $50/bbl.

According to the EIA, Gulf oil output will grow by 344 MBOPD from June 2017 through December 2018. This makes the Gulf second only to the Permian itself in anticipated growth among U.S. oil plays. Surprisingly, all other regions of the U.S., including the Eagle Ford and Bakken, are expected to grow by a mere 48 MBOPD.

Source: EIA

Crude oil production in the GOM set an all-time high in 2016, with average annual production of 1.6 MMBOPD. Production has continued to rise, reaching 1.7 MMBOPD in January. Gulf oil production is much less sensitive to short-term oil price movements than most shale plays. While it may take years for a GOM project to be approved, drilled, completed and brought on production, a shale well may complete this process in months. Related: Oil Rises To 8-Week High Following Unexpected U.S. Inventory Draw

Source: EIA

Seven projects will come online through 2018

Seven major projects are expected to come online in 2017 and 2018, supporting GOM production. Based on anticipated output from these new fields, production from the Gulf will likely continue to break records in the next two years. The EIA predicts that production will average 1.7 MMBOPD in 2017 and 1.9 MMBOPD in 2018.

Source: EIA

Overall U.S. oil production is also on course to set records in 2018. Growth in the Permian and the GOM will drive average 2018 production to 9.9 MMBOPD, significantly above the previous record of 9.6 MMBOPD set in 1970.

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  • Bill Simpson on August 04 2017 said:
    Good, because you don't want to be around when global oil production begins to decline and takes out the banking system by forcing the economy to continually shrink. Pull up a graph of total world oil and NGL production. It been going up for a long time because it takes fuel to do work. Less fuel available will mean less work will get done. The economy must shrink if less energy is used. It is physics. No politician, dictator, or Wall Street guru can change the laws of physics. Peak oil will mean we are screwed. Without both horizontal drilling, and advances in fracking, we might be in trouble already. Those advances probably pushed the peak out between 5 and 15 years. You would need to assemble a huge team of experts from all the major oil companies, including the government owned ones, to make a good guess on when the peak will hit. Obviously, that will never happen. So I'll stick with my prediction of between 2022 and 2025 for the peak. Oil production will take a while to begin to decline, so the complete economic collapse probably won't hit until sometime after 2030, at the earliest.

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