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Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

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This is the Oil Trade You Should be Making

Here it is, in one monumental and telling graph – the point on energy you must remember:

Yes, there is demand drop in the US, Europe and Japan but it is miniscule and even 25 years from now will amount to less than a million barrels a day of total liquids consumption. Meanwhile, demand growth from China, India and the Middle East ALONE will increase close to 20 million barrels a day.

Now, let me give you a second chart; the one that I believe most energy watchers are relying upon to offset chart number one:

Here’s the most graphic representation I’ve found of the magical, monster increase in shale oil production in the US – a fantastic revolution of technology and applied capital, but which has amounted to less than a 3 million barrel a day increase since tight oil recovery became widespread here in the US less than 5 years ago.  

And if you look at the areas of major growth, the Bakken and Eagle Ford, you’re sure to get suspicious of the trajectory of this second graph.  Already you’ve had numerous analysts and even CEO’s of oil companies (EOG’s Mark Papa being the most outspoken) saying that the great US shale plays have already been picked over and the peak of their production potential is not that far off.  This graph, in other words, is shortly about to flatten it’s top.

You’d find it hard to say the same for graph number one, unless you were an out-of-touch…

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