• 3 minutes Nucelar Deal Is Dead? Iran Distances Itself Further From ND, Alarming Russia And France
  • 5 minutes Don Jr. Tweets name Ukraine Whistleblower, Eric Ciaramella. Worked for CIA during Obama Administration, Hold over to Trump National Security Counsel under Gen McCallister, more . . . .
  • 9 minutes Shale pioneer Chesepeak will file bankruptcy soon. FINALLY ! The consolidation begins
  • 12 minutes China's Blueprint For Global Power
  • 10 mins The lies and follies of the "cry wolf" enviros: No more fire in the kitchen: Cities are banning natural gas in homes to save the planet
  • 8 hours Iran Finds New Oil Field With Over 50 Billion Barrels: Rouhani
  • 1 min China's Renewables Boom Hits the Wall
  • 12 hours China Burns More Coal than the Rest of the World !
  • 7 hours Offshore SE Asia: Offshore OFS Could Get Major Boost in SE Asia
  • 8 hours CHK Trading @ 90 Cents
  • 11 hours Does Brazil Auction Flop Forbode the Outcome of the Saudi Aramco IPO ?
  • 13 hours New York State Taxpayers Lose 900 Million to Tesla
  • 11 hours "Climate Migrants"
  • 18 hours Giant Windmills Wildly Unpopular
  • 6 mins Judge Orders Trump To Release Tax Returns
Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

More Info

The Blood Letting Has Only Just Begun

One steady reader of mine has questioned my recent analysis: While being positive on oil up until the break below $82, I’ve now become one of the most negative in the space as oil nears $60. He wondered aloud to me whether I’ve lost perspective. But have I? Hardly.

One of the incredible attributes of this oil market is its ability to breed selling as it goes lower, precisely because it puts more and more of US and Canadian production at risk. How much at risk? Most of my pessimism on oil as it nears $60 a barrel is contained in the answer to that question and what I see as a major smoke job that’s being done by many of the smaller and mid-cap oil companies and the analysts that follow them. I say “There Will Be Blood” – and their distress is not being correctly measured yet.

Let’s take two interesting updates this week – Conoco Phillips (COP) updated with a capital expenditure slashing for 2015 of almost 40%, yet they are claiming that their production will increase by 7% next year. Oasis Petroleum (OAS), with production far more reliant on short-term capex than Conoco similarly updated by cutting their spending budget in half, yet still claiming to increase production by 10%.

Who’s zooming who? Production increases with cratered budgets? These claims and others inside the distressed oil sector just don’t jibe – capex and production growth is only one of them. You can see the self-deception…




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News