• 4 minutes England Running Out of Water?
  • 7 minutes Trump to Make Allies Pay More to Host US Bases
  • 10 minutes U.S. Shale Output may Start Dropping Next Year
  • 14 minutes Washington Eyes Crackdown On OPEC
  • 3 hours One Last Warning For The U.S. Shale Patch
  • 14 hours Russian Effect: U.S. May Soon Pause Preparations For Delivering F-35s To Turkey
  • 6 hours China's Expansion: Italy Leads Europe Into China’s Embrace
  • 11 hours Chile Tests Floating Solar Farm
  • 31 mins Poll: Will Renewables Save the World?
  • 3 hours China's E-Buses Killing Diesel Demand
  • 21 hours New Rebate For EVs in Canada
  • 3 hours Trump sells out his base to please Wallstreet and Oil industry
  • 12 hours Biomass, Ethanol No Longer Green
  • 13 hours Trump Tariffs On China Working
  • 1 day Boeing Faces Safety Questions After Second 737 Crash In Five Months
  • 1 day The Political Debacle: Brexit delayed
  • 19 hours 3 Pipes: EPIC 900K, CACTUS II 670K, GREY OAKS 800K
  • 15 hours Read: OPEC THREATENED TO KILL US SHALE
Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

More Info

The Blood Letting Has Only Just Begun

One steady reader of mine has questioned my recent analysis: While being positive on oil up until the break below $82, I’ve now become one of the most negative in the space as oil nears $60. He wondered aloud to me whether I’ve lost perspective. But have I? Hardly.

One of the incredible attributes of this oil market is its ability to breed selling as it goes lower, precisely because it puts more and more of US and Canadian production at risk. How much at risk? Most of my pessimism on oil as it nears $60 a barrel is contained in the answer to that question and what I see as a major smoke job that’s being done by many of the smaller and mid-cap oil companies and the analysts that follow them. I say “There Will Be Blood” – and their distress is not being correctly measured yet.

Let’s take two interesting updates this week – Conoco Phillips (COP) updated with a capital expenditure slashing for 2015 of almost 40%, yet they are claiming that their production will increase by 7% next year. Oasis Petroleum (OAS), with production far more reliant on short-term capex than Conoco similarly updated by cutting their spending budget in half, yet still claiming to increase production by 10%.

Who’s zooming who? Production increases with cratered budgets? These claims and others inside the distressed oil sector just don’t jibe – capex and production growth is only one of them. You can see the self-deception…




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News