Crude Oil Outlook
April Crude Oil futures failed to follow-through to the upside this week and are likely to finish the week lower. Although the market briefly penetrated last week’s high, it remained inside the range formed the week-ending February 6. Consecutive inside moves on the weekly chart typically indicates impending volatility. This assessment makes $55.05 the potential breakout level to the upside and $47.47 the potential breakdown level. Remaining inside this range will indicate trader indecision.
Crude oil is currently being controlled by two factors, the fund traders and supply. Aggressive hedge and commodity funds are looking for any excuse to trigger a breakout to the upside, but the bearish supply fundamentals continue to prevent this move from taking place.
The fund traders probably want out of their short-positions because they see the upside potential of a solid short-covering rally. It is difficult to assess the downside potential of the market because the target numbers being tossed around at this time like $25.00 or $10.00 crude oil don’t seem to be realistic. They may be more comfortable with the “known” rather than the “unknown”.
Looking at the daily chart, the “known” objective is the 50% level at $61.06. Although the market recently stopped breaking at $44.37, the next potential support level is basically “unknown” since traders aren’t sure if it will come in…