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Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

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Oil Prices Rally On Robust Demand Outlook

  • WTI crude gained more than 3% on Thursday morning.
  • GasBuddy: we are likely to see “a 7 to 10% rise in gasoline demand today vs week ago.
  • Gradual reopening of Shanghai is another bullish factor for fuel demand.

Oil prices rose early on Thursday, extending this week’s gains, as demand looks strong with the U.S. driving season starting and Shanghai in China gradually reopening after two months of strict lockdowns.

As of 10:51 a.m. on Thursday, WTI Crude prices were up 3.17% at $113.69 and the international benchmark, Brent Crude, had risen by 2.41% on the day at $116.65.

Prices extended the small gains from previous sessions, including on Wednesday when oil rose after a supportive weekly inventory report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1 million barrels in the week to May 20. At 419.8 million barrels, crude oil inventories are 14% below the five-year average for this time of the year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 500,000 barrels last week and are about 8% below the five-year average for this time of year.

“Refinery utilization increased by 1.4 percentage points to 93.2%, the highest operating rate that we have seen from US refiners since late 2019,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said on Thursday, adding:  

“US gasoline stocks are likely to remain tight as demand picks up over the driving season.”

According to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for fuel-savings app GasBuddy, we are likely to see “a 7 to 10% rise in gasoline demand today vs week ago as travelers start to hit the road for Memorial Day weekend. Under that would be soft, anything above 15% would be surprising.”

A tentative reopening in Shanghai, with a gradual resumption of in-person classes at schools in June, is also supportive of oil prices today.

On the supply side, OPEC+ is likely to rubberstamp next week its monthly production increase of 432,000 barrels per day (bpd) for July, six sources at OPEC+ told Reuters on Thursday. OPEC+ is estimated to be more than 2 million bpd below quota, and oil output in Russia is falling—instead of rising—due to the Western sanctions on Moscow over the invasion of Ukraine.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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  • Mamdouh Salameh on May 26 2022 said:
    Brent could be headed towards $120 a barrel much earlier than I have been projecting since mid-2021 underpinned by a global oil market in its most bullish state since the oil price collapse in 2014 and a global oil demand in its super-cycle phase of accelerated demand growth expected to last 10 years and take Brent crude to $120.

    And whilst the gradual reopening of Shanghai is a bullish factor, the most bullish factor is the current tight market and the shrinking global spare production capacity including OPEC+ caused by a global underinvestment in the production expansion of oil and gas since 2019.

    Moreover, the rhetoric by the EU about banning Russian oil imports is fanning the flames under oil prices.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

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