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Julianne Geiger

Julianne Geiger

Julianne Geiger is a veteran editor, writer and researcher for Oilprice.com, and a member of the Creative Professionals Networking Group.

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Oil Prices Hit Multi-Year High Following Iranian Elections

Crude oil prices clambered upward on Monday afternoon as the market feared that Iran nuclear talks may be stalled after hardliner Ebrahim Raisi won the Iranian presidential election. 

A weaker dollar lent further support to climbing oil prices. 

Over the last thirty days, WTI has risen roughly $7.50 per barrel, from just over $66. Brent crude, on the other hand, has risen roughly $6.50 from the $68.30 a month ago.

The last time WTI spot prices were this high was back in October of 2018.

Bank of America’s newest pricing outlook suggests that Brent crude could hit $100 per barrel next year as pent-up oil demand is unleashed on a post-pandemic world.

But immediate pricing concerns eye Iran, and the impact a new president will have on any hopes of a nuclear deal with the United States, and subsequently, the additional crude oil that Iran could possibly export should the sanctions be lifted.

Market uncertainty typically weighs on oil prices, but the general sentiment in the market is that a new hardliner president may be unwilling to continue nuclear negotiations, therefore delaying or dashing hopes that sanctions will be lifted. 

Market analysts have praised U.S. shale for thus far managing to keep from falling into the trap of increasing output as prices climb ever higher. But as WTI pushes closer to $75 per barrel, and if BofA’s $100 oil forecasts turn out to be a reality, U.S. oil drillers may find it far too tempting to maintain cost discipline for long. 

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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  • Mamdouh Salameh on June 22 2021 said:
    The rise in oil prices has nothing to do with the election of hardliner Ebrahim Raisi as president of Iran and everything to do with the roaring global economy and the possibility that crude oil prices are headed towards a supercycle.

    The current indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States via the P5+1 have neither a bullish nor a bearish impact on oil prices.

    The reason is that we aren’t going to see a lifting of US sanctions against Iran even by 2023 or ever because the positions of the US and Iran are irreconcilable.

    If in the very unthinkable possibility US sanctions were lifted, Iran can’t bring more than 650,000 additional barrels a day (b/d) to the market. The reason is that Iran has been successfully evading US sanctions and exporting up to 1.5 million barrels a day (mbd) or 71% of its pre-sanction exports two-thirds of which go to China. So the 650,000 barrels a day are the difference between Iran’s pre-sanction exports and its exports under sanctions.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

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