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Martin Tillier

Martin Tillier

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Oil Looks Set For A Significant Drop As Bad Data Piles Up

The last 72 hours have not been good for the prospects for the global economy, and therefore for the price of oil.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) surprised most observers by reversing course on monetary policy. They announced that they were suspending interest rate increase, at least until the end of this year, hinted that they may even return to cuts and possible negative rates, and reintroduced a program of discounted lending to banks designed to promote growth. In some instances, loose monetary policy like that could be well received by the market, being seen as a needed and welcome shot in the arm. The problem here though is not the actions taken, but the reason for them.

China released their balance of trade data last night that showed a drop in exports of well over twenty percent from a year ago. Imports were also down significantly, indicating that while the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S. is definitely a problem, the country is a deeper-seated growth issue for the world’s biggest trading nation. As if that weren’t enough, the other one of global growth’s big three engines, the U.S. released worrying data of their own this morning. The jobs report was a huge bust, showing a non-farm payroll increase of just 20,000,…





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