Despite another week of increased inventories and the possibility that Iran will agree to a nuclear deal, May Crude Oil futures posted an inside move and slightly better close. The inside move indicates impending volatility and the slightly better close could be indicating that there is a slim chance that a deal with Iran will not be struck or that the situation between the Saudis and the Iran-backed rebels in Yemen will escalate.
That’s it in a nutshell. The better-than-average volatility during the week and the two-sided trade suggest exactly what a close at or near a 50% level is telling us. That is, the market is being controlled by trader indecision.
It has to be hard for bullish traders to commit to the long side with inventories reaching a record high for the 12th straight week, but the sideways-to-higher price action suggests there are some out there. According to the U.S. Energy Administration’s supply and demand report for the week-ended March 27, crude inventories rose 4.8 million barrels to 471.4 million. Analysts were looking for an increase of 4.2 million barrels.
Crude stocks also rose at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub. The latest reading showed an increase of 2.7 million barrels to 58.9 million. This added to concerns that this hub will soon reach full capacity.
The EIA also reported that gasoline stocks fell 4.3 million barrels, more than four times what was expected. Analysts were looking for a 943,000-barrel drop.…