• 1 day U.S. On Track To Unseat Saudi Arabia As No.2 Oil Producer In the World
  • 1 day Senior Interior Dept. Official Says Florida Still On Trump’s Draft Drilling Plan
  • 2 days Schlumberger Optimistic In 2018 For Oilfield Services Businesses
  • 2 days Only 1/3 Of Oil Patch Jobs To Return To Canada After Downturn Ends
  • 2 days Statoil, YPF Finalize Joint Vaca Muerta Development Deal
  • 2 days TransCanada Boasts Long-Term Commitments For Keystone XL
  • 2 days Nigeria Files Suit Against JP Morgan Over Oil Field Sale
  • 2 days Chinese Oil Ships Found Violating UN Sanctions On North Korea
  • 2 days Oil Slick From Iranian Tanker Explosion Is Now The Size Of Paris
  • 3 days Nigeria Approves Petroleum Industry Bill After 17 Long Years
  • 3 days Venezuelan Output Drops To 28-Year Low In 2017
  • 3 days OPEC Revises Up Non-OPEC Production Estimates For 2018
  • 3 days Iraq Ready To Sign Deal With BP For Kirkuk Fields
  • 3 days Kinder Morgan Delays Trans Mountain Launch Again
  • 3 days Shell Inks Another Solar Deal
  • 4 days API Reports Seventh Large Crude Draw In Seven Weeks
  • 4 days Maduro’s Advisors Recommend Selling Petro At Steep 60% Discount
  • 4 days EIA: Shale Oil Output To Rise By 1.8 Million Bpd Through Q1 2019
  • 4 days IEA: Don’t Expect Much Oil From Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Before 2030
  • 4 days Minister Says Norway Must Prepare For Arctic Oil Race With Russia
  • 4 days Eight Years Late—UK Hinkley Point C To Be In Service By 2025
  • 4 days Sunk Iranian Oil Tanker Leave Behind Two Slicks
  • 4 days Saudi Arabia Shuns UBS, BofA As Aramco IPO Coordinators
  • 4 days WCS-WTI Spread Narrows As Exports-By-Rail Pick Up
  • 4 days Norway Grants Record 75 New Offshore Exploration Leases
  • 5 days China’s Growing Appetite For Renewables
  • 5 days Chevron To Resume Drilling In Kurdistan
  • 5 days India Boosts Oil, Gas Resource Estimate Ahead Of Bidding Round
  • 5 days India’s Reliance Boosts Export Refinery Capacity By 30%
  • 5 days Nigeria Among Worst Performers In Electricity Supply
  • 5 days ELN Attacks Another Colombian Pipeline As Ceasefire Ceases
  • 5 days Shell Buys 43.8% Stake In Silicon Ranch Solar
  • 6 days Saudis To Award Nuclear Power Contracts In December
  • 6 days Shell Approves Its First North Sea Oil Project In Six Years
  • 6 days China Unlikely To Maintain Record Oil Product Exports
  • 6 days Australia Solar Power Additions Hit Record In 2017
  • 6 days Morocco Prepares $4.6B Gas Project Tender
  • 6 days Iranian Oil Tanker Sinks After Second Explosion
  • 8 days Russia To Discuss Possible Exit From OPEC Deal
  • 8 days Iranian Oil Tanker Drifts Into Japanese Waters As Fires Rage On
Alt Text

What’s The Limit For Permian Oil Production?

The Permian, dubbed as the…

Alt Text

OPEC Under Pressure As Oil Rally Continues

OPEC is coming under an…

Alt Text

Can The Oil Price Rally Continue?

Oil markets took a breather…

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for the U.S.-based Divergente LLC consulting firm with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and…

More Info

Mass EV Adoption Could Lead To $10 Oil

Oil

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) could lead to global peak oil demand as soon as 2023, which will result in oil prices crashing to $10, Chris Watling, CEO & chief market strategist at Longview Economics, told CNBC on Friday.

Watling said he didn’t see oil crashing “in the next few weeks or months, or maybe even quarters, but I think the long-term outlook for oil—because of what’s happening in terms of electric vehicles” with 70 percent of oil used for transportation, is oil plummeting to $10 somewhere around 2023-2025.

“We used to talk about peak oil in terms of supply, we now need to talk about peak oil in terms of demand,” Watling added. China is on an aggressive push to EVs adoption, and the analyst thinks that “often new economies, emerging economies, adopt new technologies first, because they don’t have the old infrastructure that they have to keep servicing.”   

The key catalyst for the oil market next year would be Saudi Aramco’s planned IPO—the biggest initial public offering ever—Watling agreed, and added “Well, I think they need to get it away quick before oil goes to $10.”

For next year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the ongoing production gains from non-OPEC countries to probably act as a “the ceiling for aspirations of higher oil prices”, despite the fact that now everyone acknowledges that the global oil market continues to make progress toward rebalancing.

Related: Busting The Lithium Bubble Myth

Of course, there are other views among experts and analysts, with Citi, for example, expecting tighter supply next year, regardless of what OPEC does. Several big OPEC members are already pumping at capacity, and even though some have plans to ramp up production, they may not have room for more, according to Citi’s Ed Morse, the head of the bank’s commodity research.

Oil trader Trafigura also begs to differ from the herd expecting “lower for longer” to continue for longer, or even forever. Trafigura’s co-head of group market risk, Ben Luckock, said at a presentation at the conference, as carried by the Financial Times:

“We are nearing the end of ‘lower for longer’.”

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads from Oilprice.com:




Back to homepage


Leave a comment
  • Al on October 13 2017 said:
    $10 oil....not going to happen for a long time...that analyst may want to come back into this reality....more like $100 oil in the near future again...
  • snoopyloopy on October 13 2017 said:
    Hopefully, those economies that depend on oil to survive are paying attention and making serious moves to survive.
  • cowboybob on October 13 2017 said:
    Really? And were is All this free electricity going to come from?
  • Dan on October 13 2017 said:
    Where are the power plants for this electricity? California just turned down some . Can't get to C if you can't add A and B.
  • Willie on October 13 2017 said:
    So we are to believe in 6-7 years electric cars are going to jump from less than a percent to being everywhere. Where is all the raw materials for such vehicles going to be coming from and they better start building the infra structure now to supply all this electricity. I have land in Antarctica for sale also, If any one believes this Bull.
  • Crosby on October 13 2017 said:
    The only problem is global oil demand has been steadily increasing... Seems like a very unrealistic prediction
  • netdragon on October 13 2017 said:
    Sounds like someone got stuck with a bunch of short calls and wants to drive down the price and is feeding pessimistic stuff to reporters.

    Of course this will happen in the long-term, but short term there's no freaking way. Oil is going to go up over the next year.
  • Kr55 on October 13 2017 said:
    $10 oil would lead to wells all around the world being shut in, and middle east countries collapsing and destroying each other. That price would not last for long.
  • Citizen Oil on October 13 2017 said:
    Another laughable extremist analyst view. China is already downplaying purchasing EV's as they don't have the power structure to keep up with EV charging requirements. I don't think anyone has thought this EV disruption out well. The costs will be enormous and the majority of people don't find the EV range appealing . Billions if not trillions will have to be spent on charging stations , windmills, nuclear plants, solar panels, etc. Not going to happen for decades to come, especially since most countries are virtually bankrupt. EV's are an amazing ideology whose practicality is poor right now.
  • Canadian eh on October 13 2017 said:
    ....and this is why economists always get it wrong. Rarely do their predictions take into account any real world issues. Its pretty obvious this guys is making his claims based on a bunch of headline grabbing predictions and pie in the sky extrapolations rather than on technical fundamentals. Electric market will certainly grow but the chances of it even keeping oil demand growth at bay in the next 10 years is highly unlikely. Lots of hurdles in scaling up the electric car market and the electric grid...and as has been mentioned we still have to get the electricity from somewhere. If not oil or coal then nat. gas. will be a big component of power generation. Renewable may be growing but they have a long long way to go and some big issues to overcome to produce on a scale to displace hydrocarbons in a meaningful way. I'll stand up and take notice of this kind of headline when its followed by some hard technical analysis to back up the claims. Until then I shall sleep.
  • James on October 13 2017 said:
    Thats what you call a SUPER pipe dream! Oil can crash to 10$ and then we'll see the most painful price spike the world has ever seen! People thinking that Elon "Elron" Musk will change the world and everything will be electric and unicorns need to step back into reality. Oil will dominate for 2-4 more decades.
  • DreadPirate on October 13 2017 said:
    $10 oil. We had that as recently as 1999 when the Saudis were determined to drive the price so low that OPEC would stop cheating (and it paid off in spades - oil was $140 bbl in 7 years). But only the biggest fool could believe $10 oil is coming again because of EVs. EVs can't compete at $50 bbl, let alone $10 bbl. Far easier to get rid of coal than oil, simply due to energy density. Physics and science matters. This joker is just as idiotic as that moron Matt Simons who was blowviating about Saudi production's "imminent collapse" and $200+bbl a decade ago.
  • 338WinMag on October 13 2017 said:
    This analyst might want to look at the EROEI on electric vehicles. EVs are envirofanaticism and enviromadness married together by government subsidies. Fossil fuel energy is a one time shot in the arm of the human race. There is no replacement for the solar energy stored in fossil fuel form over millennia. It irreplaceable by any form of green energy. Bull markets in energy for the future is a certainty.
  • Freeze.dried_mule on October 13 2017 said:
    Not going to happen with world consumption at almost 100 million barrels every single day! Market is distorted to the low side with gasoline being virtually the cheapest liquid you can buy in America......cheaper than bottled water. EVs and wind a tiny fraction of power used everyday.
  • oilprice_what? on October 13 2017 said:
    Dear Tsvetana Paraskova,

    How can you write about an oil price spike in 2020 on the 10th of October (link below) and then about oil prices to collapse to USD10 in 2023? Do you actually read what you write?

    (http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Supply-Crunch-To-Lead-To-Oil-Price-Spike-By-2020s-Expert-Says.html)
  • Optimst on October 14 2017 said:
    It is interesting how emotional this subject is.
    Looking at the projections from Exxon and Opec where they both project an insignificant market share of EVs in 2040 it seems pretty clear that they need this to be the case for the oil prices to be stable in the future.

    It is true that EVs will increase the load on the electrical grid, but due to the efficiency of EVs this increased load is less than what most think.
    Also keep in mind that the utility companies are struggling with flat electricity demand and they would love to see some growth.

    EVs are much cheaper to run than ICE's and there is pretty much no maintenance. There is also time savings by not having to go to the gas station.... Their acceleration and performances is superior to ICE's. So I think there are good reasons to believe that in the next decade that EVs will pretty much take over.
    This will have a dramatic impact on oil demand and prices. My money is on 10$ a barrel in the next decade at some point.... Will be very interesting see....
  • John Scior on October 15 2017 said:
    It seems like an extremist conclusion but I believe the jist of the debate comes down to this : as oil becomes more difficult to find what will be the logical conclusion as to its replacement. We no longer light our homes by whale oil light it is done by electricity. Whenever rapid changes occur such as War that might disrupt supply chains, investments in alternatives increases. As supply chain interruptions dissipate , oil becomes the predominate transportation fuel once again. Brought about much discussion though with the headline of 10 oil - unlikely to happen though for some time.
  • Marcus Rönningås on October 15 2017 said:
    I havn't fueled any of my other cars since we got our EV some three months ago. I'm starting to doubt that we ever will fuel them before we change them all to EV's.

    Electricity ? Our EV (Ioniq) consumes 1,25 kWh/10 km (~0,24kWh/mile), so the impact to our consumption of electricity is quite low. We calculated with 10 % increase when we got the car, but it's more like 8.

    We have driven ~7500 km (4660 miles) without having to recharge it once on the road. Always at night, always at home. I got COO's for wind which costs me 0,02 SEK extra per kWh (0,0025 USD).

    Will EV's change the need for oil and gas and the price ? Anyones guess is as good as mine.
  • MikeInAZ on October 16 2017 said:
    2025 for an end date for oil demand? Doubtful. It will be another 20 years before there is mass adoption of EV. Too many people aren't believers in the technology. Too many people are waiting for 400+ mile range cars. What about work trucks, towing boats and trailers and toys?

    We need a revolutionary change in battery technology and charging technology. As it stands now, it takes me 14+ hours to charge my Volt, just to run it 40-50 miles the next day. Level 2 charging could cut that down to 4 or 6 hours, but that's still too long. We need to be able to charge 100% in 1 hour or less.
  • Arthur on October 26 2017 said:
    So without using apps like turbo for car sharing. Even would need to cost for my parents about 2000 Euro if I produce electricity my self with PV which is cheaper than energy from companies, but I use bysicle instead of car - better for my body, environment and wallet. And by the way it would not be profitable to extract oil at 10$ and even electric cars used oil based products in batteries alone (life cycle of battery is much longer than fuel) It is possible that oil price won't drop so much even in long term cause they are going to close costly operations when demand will decrease which will make price stay quite high - nowhere near 10x drop in price. And lower fuel prices will slower adoption of EV's
  • Tom Cruise on November 03 2017 said:
    There shall come a time when crude oil is obsolete, nobody is using them, almost all oilfield abandoned and then the price shall be $1,000 a barrel.
  • Doug on November 06 2017 said:
    The question I have for this author is...

    Where do the EV's pull their power from? Hint...it is not a plug in the wall.
  • Marcus Rönningås on November 09 2017 said:
    @Doug
    The answer is a few comments above:
    "I got COO's for wind which costs me 0,02 SEK extra per kWh (0,0025 USD)."

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News