• 4 minutes U.S. Shale Output may Start Dropping Next Year
  • 8 minutes Read: OPEC WILL KILL US SHALE
  • 12 minutes Tidal Power Closer to Commercialisation
  • 16 minutes Washington Eyes Crackdown On OPEC
  • 2 hours Why U.S. Growers Are Betting The Farm On Soybeans Amid China Trade War
  • 2 hours Trump to Make Allies Pay More to Host US Bases
  • 4 hours BATTLE ROYAL: Law of "Supply and Demand". vs. OPEC/Saudi Oil Cartel
  • 2 hours US-backed coup in Venezuela not so smooth
  • 13 hours Solar to Become World's Largest Power Source by 2050
  • 1 day Sounds Familiar: Netanyahu Tells Arab Citizens They’re Not Real Israelis
  • 4 hours Biomass, Ethanol No Longer Green
  • 21 hours THE DEATH OF FOSSIL FUEL MARKETS
  • 1 day Can OPEC CUT PRODUCTION FOREVER?
  • 1 day Boeing Faces Safety Questions After Second 737 Crash In Five Months
  • 1 day this is why Climate Friendly Agendas Tread Water
  • 19 hours Exxon Aims For $15-a-Barrel Costs In Giant Permian Operation

Breaking News:

Tesla Wants To Enter India Soon

Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

More Info

It Won’t Take Much To Drive Oil Prices Lower

October Crude Oil

Fundamental Analysis

Last week’s comments ended with a summary stating that crude oil is in a news driven market and that fresh news will be necessary to drive the volatility and the price action. The key underlying story for a bullish scenario remains the possibility of an early production cut by OPEC.

This week’s inside move on the weekly chart suggests investors are still waiting for bullish news. The inside move typically indicates investor indecision. It also indicates impending volatility.

The major market players remain on the short side. They will continue to defend the long-term downtrend on the weekly chart until they are overwhelmed by massive short-covering and that isn’t likely to occur unless OPEC actually cuts production.

Speculative buyers appear to be willing to support the market on breaks. They may be willing to do this as long as the OPEC news is still out there. In the meantime, they seem to be content with buying the dips rather than chasing prices higher. Their reason for buying may be related to U.S. production cuts.

Outside factors may also be influencing the price action. Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve will release its latest monetary policy statement. It may raise interest rates for the first time since 2009. This news can produce a two-sided effect.

Firstly, over the short-run, an interest rate hike will drive the U.S. dollar higher. Since crude oil is dollar-denominated,…




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News