• 34 mins US Orion To Develop Gas Field In Iraq
  • 3 days U.S. On Track To Unseat Saudi Arabia As No.2 Oil Producer In the World
  • 3 days Senior Interior Dept. Official Says Florida Still On Trump’s Draft Drilling Plan
  • 3 days Schlumberger Optimistic In 2018 For Oilfield Services Businesses
  • 3 days Only 1/3 Of Oil Patch Jobs To Return To Canada After Downturn Ends
  • 3 days Statoil, YPF Finalize Joint Vaca Muerta Development Deal
  • 3 days TransCanada Boasts Long-Term Commitments For Keystone XL
  • 3 days Nigeria Files Suit Against JP Morgan Over Oil Field Sale
  • 3 days Chinese Oil Ships Found Violating UN Sanctions On North Korea
  • 4 days Oil Slick From Iranian Tanker Explosion Is Now The Size Of Paris
  • 4 days Nigeria Approves Petroleum Industry Bill After 17 Long Years
  • 4 days Venezuelan Output Drops To 28-Year Low In 2017
  • 4 days OPEC Revises Up Non-OPEC Production Estimates For 2018
  • 4 days Iraq Ready To Sign Deal With BP For Kirkuk Fields
  • 4 days Kinder Morgan Delays Trans Mountain Launch Again
  • 4 days Shell Inks Another Solar Deal
  • 5 days API Reports Seventh Large Crude Draw In Seven Weeks
  • 5 days Maduro’s Advisors Recommend Selling Petro At Steep 60% Discount
  • 5 days EIA: Shale Oil Output To Rise By 1.8 Million Bpd Through Q1 2019
  • 5 days IEA: Don’t Expect Much Oil From Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Before 2030
  • 5 days Minister Says Norway Must Prepare For Arctic Oil Race With Russia
  • 5 days Eight Years Late—UK Hinkley Point C To Be In Service By 2025
  • 5 days Sunk Iranian Oil Tanker Leave Behind Two Slicks
  • 5 days Saudi Arabia Shuns UBS, BofA As Aramco IPO Coordinators
  • 5 days WCS-WTI Spread Narrows As Exports-By-Rail Pick Up
  • 6 days Norway Grants Record 75 New Offshore Exploration Leases
  • 6 days China’s Growing Appetite For Renewables
  • 6 days Chevron To Resume Drilling In Kurdistan
  • 6 days India Boosts Oil, Gas Resource Estimate Ahead Of Bidding Round
  • 6 days India’s Reliance Boosts Export Refinery Capacity By 30%
  • 6 days Nigeria Among Worst Performers In Electricity Supply
  • 6 days ELN Attacks Another Colombian Pipeline As Ceasefire Ceases
  • 7 days Shell Buys 43.8% Stake In Silicon Ranch Solar
  • 7 days Saudis To Award Nuclear Power Contracts In December
  • 7 days Shell Approves Its First North Sea Oil Project In Six Years
  • 7 days China Unlikely To Maintain Record Oil Product Exports
  • 7 days Australia Solar Power Additions Hit Record In 2017
  • 7 days Morocco Prepares $4.6B Gas Project Tender
  • 7 days Iranian Oil Tanker Sinks After Second Explosion
  • 10 days Russia To Discuss Possible Exit From OPEC Deal

Breaking News:

US Orion To Develop Gas Field In Iraq

Alt Text

OPEC Under Pressure As Oil Rally Continues

OPEC is coming under an…

Alt Text

What’s The Limit For Permian Oil Production?

The Permian, dubbed as the…

Alt Text

The World’s Most Expensive Oil

There are hundreds of oil…

Nick Cunningham

Nick Cunningham

Nick Cunningham is a freelance writer on oil and gas, renewable energy, climate change, energy policy and geopolitics. He is based in Pittsburgh, PA.

More Info

India Putting Floor Beneath Oil Prices As Demand Continues To Soar

Oil Storage UAE

If oil prices are to continue their strong rally, they will have India to thank.

India has emerged as the “star performer” of the oil markets, the IEA wrote in its May Oil Market Report. Oil demand growth in India has surpassed that of China, the long-time cornerstone of global commodity demand.

Part of India’s sudden importance has to do with China. Demand growth for refined fuels in China plunged recently, down to 353,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2016 from a year earlier. That is down roughly 60 percent from a highpoint in the third quarter of last year at nearly 900,000 barrels per day (elevated levels that had a lot to do with filling of China’s strategic petroleum reserve).

But India’s demand for liquid fuels grew by 400,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, which was the fastest in the world, accounting for about 30 percent of the total global increase. “This provides further support for the argument that India is taking over from the China as the main growth market for oil,” the IEA wrote in May. That level of growth is all the more remarkable given that India’s oil demand grew at an average of just 120,000 barrels per day every year for the past decade, according to Bernstein Research. Related: Permian Springs To Life With $50 Oil

The growth figures in India are striking: GDP is expanding at a 7.6 percent annual rate, gasoline demand is up 14.5 percent, and diesel demand is up 7.5 percent. The WSJ reports that 24 million new vehicles were constructed in India in the most recent fiscal year, and the government is targeting new road construction on the order of 30 kilometers every single day. India’s vehicle fleet has doubled since 2007.

To fill all of those vehicles, India needs more oil. And with domestic production relatively stagnant, India has to resort to steadily higher imports. Crude oil imports have jumped by 12 percent so far this year from 2015 levels. Domestic refineries are running full tilt, and more capacity is needed.

According to Bernstein’s Neil Beveridge, India is at a “structural inflection point for oil growth,” with several factors responsible for the surge in demand: the government program to rapidly expand the nation’s highway system; rising per capita income; and a shift towards building out manufacturing capacity to make up a larger share of the Indian economy. Related: Oil Prices Stimulated By Fed’s Inaction

India is now more or less at the same per capita income levels as China in 2002 – a time when China’s demand for oil and other commodities started to skyrocket. Bernstein sees India undergoing a similar, if less intense, industrialization and economic transformation. Oil consumption could grow at a 5.4 percent compound annual growth rate through 2021, or an increase of 1.45 million barrels per day (mb/d) over the next five years to 5.45 mb/d. by 2040, India’s oil demand could rise to 10 mb/d, a more than 6 mb/d increase from today’s levels, which will also be the largest source of growth on the planet.

In other words, India is simultaneously contributing to oil demand in today’s oil market, putting a floor beneath prices, while India will also be the largest driver of oil demand over the long-term. China was largely responsible for the commodity super-cycle that began in the early 2000s that ended a few years ago. Companies that spent billions on coal mines in Australia, copper mines in Chile, or drilled oil wells in increasingly hard-to-reach areas of the globe – they all had China in mind when they put together their forecasts. But going forward, India will increasingly play that role.

And the next bull market could be starting sooner than many think. Bloomberg reports that commodity markets are about to enter bull market territory, as the Bloomberg Commodity Index – which tracks 22 different raw materials – is about to close up 20 percent from January levels. To be sure, the super-cycle price boom of a decade ago is not about to return, but the bear market has come to an end. The fortunes of commodity producers now rest with India.

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Back to homepage


Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News