• 1 day The Federal Reserve and Money...Aspects which are not widely known
  • 8 minutes How Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy
  • 12 minutes  What Russia has reached over three months diplomatic and military pressure on West ?
  • 2 days Coincidence of EIA Report Delay? - "I had seen it delayed minutes, and a couple of times a few hours, but don’t recall something like this — do others?" asks Javier Blas
  • 10 hours European Parliament Members, Cristian Terhes et al, push back against Totalitarian Digital ID and Carbon Tyranny in Europe.
  • 3 days Demonising fossil fuels has caused major grid problem in Australia
  • 8 days "And this is perhaps the most dangerous kind of government there can be."
  • 2 days "...too many politicians believe things that aren’t true." says Robert Rapier
  • 4 days Oil Stocks, Market Direction, Bitcoin, Minerals, Gold, Silver - Technical Trading <--- Chris Vermeulen & Gareth Soloway weigh in
  • 3 days Welcome to Technocracy - The New World Energy Order... "1000s Of Sydney Homes Plunged Into Darkness As Aussie 'Price Cap' Policy Sparks Energy Shortage"
  • 5 days "How to Calculate Your Individual ESG Score to ensure that your Digital ID 'benefits' and money are accessible"
  • 329 days Beware the Left's 'Degrowth' Movement (i.e. why Covid-19 is Good)
  • 7 days ESG Topic - "German Police Raid Deutsche Bank, DWS Over Allegations Of Greenwashing" - ZeroHedge Bloomberg and others
Citi And Barclays Raise Oil Price Forecasts

Citi And Barclays Raise Oil Price Forecasts

Two banks—Citi and Barclay’s—raised their…

Are Oilfield Service Companies A Buy?

Are Oilfield Service Companies A Buy?

The global boom in oil…

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

More Info

Premium Content

Goldman: Only Demand Destruction Can Keep Oil Prices From Rising

  • Goldman Sachs: Only demand destruction could stop oil from rising to $115 over the next month.
  • Sanctions on Russian banks could complicate Russian seaborne crude exports in the near term.
  • The investment bank raised its one-month forecast for Brent Crude to $115 per barrel.

Only demand destruction could stop oil from rising to $115 over the next month due to the difficulties Russia will have in payments for its energy exports after the West removed some Russian banks from SWIFT after Putin invaded Ukraine, Goldman Sachs says.

The removal of selected Russian banks from the SWIFT international payment system and the goal to limit the international operations of Russia’s central bank would affect Russian seaborne oil exports in the near term, Goldman said in a note to clients on Sunday.

“Commodity markets need to reflect not only these difficulties in paying for Russia’s exports but, with little left to sanction, the risk that Russian commodities eventually fall under Western restrictions,” Goldman’s strategists wrote in the note.

The investment bank raised its one-month forecast for Brent Crude to $115 per barrel, up from a previous projection of $95. And according to Goldman Sachs, the upside risk is significant due to potential further escalation of the war, sanctions, or longer disruption to Russian oil exports.

After a drop on Friday, oil prices shot up again on Monday to above $100 per barrel following this weekend’s further tightening of the sanctions against Russia over Putin’s war in Ukraine. On Monday, the Russian ruble crumbled to an all-time low against the U.S. dollar, the Moscow stock exchange did not open, the Russian central bank doubled the interest rate to 20 percent, and people in Russia queued at ATMs and banks to withdraw cash.

The sanctions effect on the Russian oil trade has started to show. Reports started to emerge that some Chinese banks have reportedly stopped financing deals involving Russian oil and companies.

Commenting on Goldman’s oil price view, Goldman Sachs Head of Commodities Research Jeff Currie told Bloomberg on Monday:

“I just want to emphasize that at this point right now: unattended consequent risk -- meaning a pipeline outage or something like that -- is extraordinarily high.”   

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage

Leave a comment
  • Mamdouh Salameh on February 28 2022 said:
    The global oil market is in its most bullish state since 2014 whilst global oil demand has already entered a super-cycle phase which could last for ten years and push Brent crude to $120 a barrel in the next few years.

    A fair Brent crude price ranges from $100-$110. This is a good price for the global economy since it invigorates the three chunks that make up the economy, namely (i) global investments; (ii) the global oil industry and (iii) the economies of the oil-producing countries in the world combined.

    If oil prices go above the tolerance level of the global economy, it will let us know in no uncertain terms. This happened twice in the recent past in 2008 when Brent crude hit $147 a barrel and in 2014 when Brent surged to $115.

    Any price above the tolerance level of the global economy will lead to demand destruction forcing prices down to a level acceptable to the global economy and consumers.

    If the financial sanctions on Russia by the United States and the European Union (EU) start to hurt the Russian economy badly, Russia may retaliate by halting all its gas and oil shipments to the EU and shift them to China and get paid either in dollars or in petro-yuan which is convertible to other currencies. But the EU economies will pay a very heavy price that will affect their economic growth.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

Leave a comment

EXXON Mobil -0.35
Open57.81 Trading Vol.6.96M Previous Vol.241.7B
BUY 57.15
Sell 57.00
Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News