• 2 days PDVSA Booted From Caribbean Terminal Over Unpaid Bills
  • 2 days Russia Warns Ukraine Against Recovering Oil Off The Coast Of Crimea
  • 3 days Syrian Rebels Relinquish Control Of Major Gas Field
  • 3 days Schlumberger Warns Of Moderating Investment In North America
  • 3 days Oil Prices Set For Weekly Loss As Profit Taking Trumps Mideast Tensions
  • 3 days Energy Regulators Look To Guard Grid From Cyberattacks
  • 3 days Mexico Says OPEC Has Not Approached It For Deal Extension
  • 3 days New Video Game Targets Oil Infrastructure
  • 3 days Shell Restarts Bonny Light Exports
  • 3 days Russia’s Rosneft To Take Majority In Kurdish Oil Pipeline
  • 3 days Iraq Struggles To Replace Damaged Kirkuk Equipment As Output Falls
  • 3 days British Utility Companies Brace For Major Reforms
  • 4 days Montenegro A ‘Sweet Spot’ Of Untapped Oil, Gas In The Adriatic
  • 4 days Rosneft CEO: Rising U.S. Shale A Downside Risk To Oil Prices
  • 4 days Brazil Could Invite More Bids For Unsold Pre-Salt Oil Blocks
  • 4 days OPEC/Non-OPEC Seek Consensus On Deal Before Nov Summit
  • 4 days London Stock Exchange Boss Defends Push To Win Aramco IPO
  • 4 days Rosneft Signs $400M Deal With Kurdistan
  • 4 days Kinder Morgan Warns About Trans Mountain Delays
  • 4 days India, China, U.S., Complain Of Venezuelan Crude Oil Quality Issues
  • 4 days Kurdish Kirkuk-Ceyhan Crude Oil Flows Plunge To 225,000 Bpd
  • 5 days Russia, Saudis Team Up To Boost Fracking Tech
  • 5 days Conflicting News Spurs Doubt On Aramco IPO
  • 5 days Exxon Starts Production At New Refinery In Texas
  • 5 days Iraq Asks BP To Redevelop Kirkuk Oil Fields
  • 6 days Oil Prices Rise After U.S. API Reports Strong Crude Inventory Draw
  • 6 days Oil Gains Spur Growth In Canada’s Oil Cities
  • 6 days China To Take 5% Of Rosneft’s Output In New Deal
  • 6 days UAE Oil Giant Seeks Partnership For Possible IPO
  • 6 days Planting Trees Could Cut Emissions As Much As Quitting Oil
  • 6 days VW Fails To Secure Critical Commodity For EVs
  • 6 days Enbridge Pipeline Expansion Finally Approved
  • 6 days Iraqi Forces Seize Control Of North Oil Co Fields In Kirkuk
  • 6 days OPEC Oil Deal Compliance Falls To 86%
  • 7 days U.S. Oil Production To Increase in November As Rig Count Falls
  • 7 days Gazprom Neft Unhappy With OPEC-Russia Production Cut Deal
  • 7 days Disputed Venezuelan Vote Could Lead To More Sanctions, Clashes
  • 7 days EU Urges U.S. Congress To Protect Iran Nuclear Deal
  • 7 days Oil Rig Explosion In Louisiana Leaves 7 Injured, 1 Still Missing
  • 7 days Aramco Says No Plans To Shelve IPO
Alt Text

IEA: Oil Prices To Hit A Ceiling In 2018

Global oil markets appear to…

Alt Text

Goldman Sachs: Inventory Drawdowns Will Not Continue

Goldman Sachs has reported that…

Alt Text

Oil Prices Poised To Rise In Early 2018

A consistent fall in comparative…

Commodities Mansion

Commodities Mansion

For further reading about Crude Oil and Gold go to CommoditiesMansion.com.CommoditiesMansion.com is a part of the Finance Mansion network which operates thousands of global financial…

More Info

Crude Oil Mid-Week Analysis for the Week of July 4, 2011

Crude Oil Mid-Week Analysis for the Week of July 4, 2011

After a two-day consolidation, August crude oil surged to the upside. The rally was set up by last week’s closing price reversal bottom at 89.61 and penetration of several technical points on the daily chart.

The key area which was successfully tested on the weekly chart was the retracement zone at 94.98 to 90.13. This area represented 50% to 61.8% of the range from the May 2010 bottom at 74.43 and the May 2011 top at 115.52.

The first upside resistance on the weekly chart was reached on Tuesday at a steep Gann angle down from the 115.52 main top at 97.52. A penetration of this level will indicate strength and the potential for a 50% test of the last break from 115.52 to 89.61. This target is 102.57.

Crude Oil Price

Investor sentiment rose on Tuesday following the U.S. holiday. Two events triggered renewed optimism by investors for higher prices. Firstly, Barclay’s raised its 2012 forecast for Brent and U.S. crude oil, and secondly, Saudi Arabia slightly reduced the price of oil it charges to its Asian customers.

A rise in U.S. factory orders in May also triggered renewed demand as investors increased bets the U.S. economy would strengthen during the second half of the year.

Despite the outlook for improving fundamentals on the demand side of the equation, news that Portugal’s debt rating was sliced may renew fears of contagion in the Euro Zone. This could increase demand for the U.S. Dollar as a safe haven investment, thereby putting pressure on commodities like crude oil.

The technicals and fundamentals both support continued strength in crude oil the rest of the week, however, the up move may be muted if the debt situation in Portugal causes the Euro to tumble and safe haven currencies to rise.

Factors Affecting Crude Oil This Week:

• Less than a week since Greece approved its austerity measures, in a move that underpinned crude oil prices, renewed interest in Portugal’s debt issues may dampen gain in the crude oil market. Oil traders will have to watch this event unfold on a day-to-day basis. This uncertainty may not be enough to derail the rally in crude oil, but it may be enough to slow down the current upside momentum.

• Wednesday’s normal U.S. Energy Dept. oil inventory report has been delayed until Thursday due to the U.S. holiday. Domestic crude oil stocks are expected to show a decline of 2.3 million barrels.

• On Thursday, the European Central Bank meets to discuss monetary policy. Expectations are for a 25 basis point hike, however, a recent slow down in the Euro Zone economy may prompt the ECB to refrain from further hikes for several months. A weak outlook for the Euro Zone economy by the ECB may hurt demand for crude oil.

• Traders should watch for potential volatility because of conflicting analyst oil reports. Earlier this week, Barclays raised its 2012 forecast, however it left its 2011 forecast unchanged for Brent, but cut it for U.S. crude.  Citigroup is predicting Brent may fall to $90 by September, but rise longer-term if Saudi Arabia cuts production and increased supply from the recently released strategic petroleum reserve oil.

• The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday is expected to show an increase of 87,000 jobs. A bearish number will indicate the economy is slowing. This could mean less demand for crude oil.

By. Commodities Mansion

For further reading about Crude Oil and Gold go to CommoditiesMansion.com.
CommoditiesMansion.com is a part of the Finance Mansion network which operates thousands of global financial websites. Our goal is to provide our readers with the experts' articles, reviews, charts, analysis and more in order for you to make more educated financial decisions. Therefore we always seek for the most recent and accurate information about Finance, Forex, Stocks, Indices, Futures, Commodities (Gold, Oil Price, Natural Gas etc.), ETFs, Bonds and Options.




Back to homepage


Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News