• 4 minutes Energy Armageddon
  • 6 minutes "How to Calculate Your Individual ESG Score to ensure that your Digital ID 'benefits' and money are accessible"
  • 12 minutes "Europe’s Energy Crisis Has Ended Its Era Of Abundance" by Irina Slav
  • 4 hours GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES
  • 3 days Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?
  • 24 hours Wind droughts
  • 4 days "Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Grinding Toward Summer Highs Despite Huge Short Interest" by James Hyerczyk & REUTERS on NatGas
  • 2 days Kazakhstan Is Defying Russia and Has the Support of China. China is Using Russia's Weakness to Expand Its Own Influence.
  • 2 days Oil Prices Fall After Fed Raises Rates
  • 12 days How Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy
  • 4 days Oil Stocks, Market Direction, Bitcoin, Minerals, Gold, Silver - Technical Trading <--- Chris Vermeulen & Gareth Soloway weigh in
  • 10 days "Russian oil executive and Putin critic Ravil Maganov dead after mysterious six-story fall" - The New York Post
  • 2 days 87,000 new IRS agents, higher taxes, and a massive green energy slush fund... "Here Are The Winners And Losers In The 'Inflation Reduction Act'"-ZeroHedge
  • 7 days Beware the Left's 'Degrowth' Movement (i.e. why Covid-19 is Good)
  • 10 days The Federal Reserve and Money...Aspects which are not widely known
Fears Of Economic Slowdown Cap Crude Prices

Fears Of Economic Slowdown Cap Crude Prices

Tightening monetary policy is expected…

FX Empire

FX Empire

More Info

Premium Content

Crude Oil Analysis for the Week of September 19, 2011

What promised to look like a bullish week on Tuesday, failed as the rally in November Crude Oil fizzled with a series of narrow trading days. The trading action became so weak that the market couldn’t even exceed the previous week’s high at 90.69 and instead produced an indecisive inside week.

To be fair, although an inside week indicates indecisiveness, it is often indicative of impending volatility, setting up the market for a breakout in either direction. With the main trend down on the weekly chart, there is still a slight bias to the downside. Most of this week’s action is going to hinge on how the market behaves when testing an uptrending Gann angle at 88.61.

For five weeks the market has been holding this angle as support. Last week the market penetrated this angle, but subsequent buying power triggered a full recovery. This week may be different as traders may be eyeing the next Gann angle below it at 82.61 as the next downside target. Coupled with this idea is the fact that the short-term range of 76.61 to 90.69 has set up a retracement zone at 83.65 to 81.99.

oil price movements

On the upside, last week crude oil hemmed and hawed a few times across a 50% price at 89.00. This price created by the range of 101.39 to 76.61 is the pivotal level that appears to be controlling the short-term direction of the market. Regaining this level and establishing support here is likely to trigger a rally into the 61.8% level at 91.92.  Following this is a pair of Gann angles at 93.39 and 95.46.

Fundamentally, the early week rally in crude oil crumbled on concerns that European plans to put an end to the Euro Zone’s debt crisis may trigger the start of an economic slowdown. Without the upside momentum to drive this market higher, it looks as if the market will begin the week with a bias to the downside.

Factors Affecting Crude Oil This Week:

• European Debt Crisis. From the way the week ended, it will be a surprise to traders if the European sovereign debt crisis came to a quick end. Floundering is the best word to describe last week’s activity although from the action in the Euro, one would think that a solution is at hand. It seems at this point in the negotiations that no matter what path officials chose, the Euro Zone economy is poised for an economic setback. Based on the intertwining of the global economy this will likely mean a worldwide recession and less demand for crude oil.

• Supply and Demand. U.S. crude oil inventories fell 6.7 million barrels to 346.4 million last week because of production shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico triggered by Tropical Storm Lee. This accounted for the drop in imports. One imports get back in line, the supply situation may stabilize.

• Libya.  Brent crude oil traders have been waiting for several weeks for Libyan production to get back on line. Further delays are likely to underpin the market. Although production is expected to be slow at first, it should have a negative influence on pricing. Production increasing at a steadier pace than expected could have a major impact on prices.

• Brent/WTI Spread. After reaching a high near $27.00, this spread narrowed to a little under $24.00. If it resumes its uptrend, then oil prices will firm. If Brent crude oil prices fall then look for the spread to tighten, however, WTI crude oil may not fall as fast since short traders will cover their positions while unwinding the spread.

By. FX Empire

FXEmpire.com is the Forex flagship site of the FX Empire Network. The FX Empire Network provides readers with the most expert and most timely technical analyses, fundamental analyses and news-pieces; this in order to empower them to make for themselves the best possible financial decisions. The FX Empire Network’s other flagship sites include: StocksEmpire.com and CommoditiesEmpire.com.


Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage





Leave a comment

Leave a comment




EXXON Mobil -0.35
Open57.81 Trading Vol.6.96M Previous Vol.241.7B
BUY 57.15
Sell 57.00
Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News