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Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

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Time to Hop on the Natural Gas Train

Time to Hop on the Natural Gas Train

With hedge funds performing miserably this year compared to the indexes, you’ve got to say that sometimes it helps to be a little stupid.  Those investors who didn’t read the Q’s, ignored the warnings of slowing Chinese growth and EU double-dip recession and just blithely kept long dividend staples in Vanguard index funds have done spectacularly well.

Such a year would make Jack Bogle proud, never have we seen such a complete vindication of his hold, hold, and hold strategy as 2013. 

I am a big fan of Mr. Bogle and try to keep a major portion of my portfolio under wraps and unmoving – but I’m also a trader and my career has been about improving performance based on tactical allocation and better understanding the commodity cycles  – with a look to improve on mere indexes. 

Such a value has emerged in natural gas, which has seen 3 years of miserable performance, but is finally poised to rise from the ashes like the phoenix. Numbers don’t lie – a cratering of rig counts and voluntary shut-ins has finally pushed storage of gas under the 5-year average – a monumental achievement.  In recent conference calls from the supermajors, I did not hear any of the companies even suggest that they were going to be wooed by $4 natural gas into returning production capex from crude oil and liquids to resume drilling for natty; it seems likely that many quarters of rising gas prices will be needed…




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