I’m looking to make only some small tweaks to our investments in this lazy month of August. It is a time I’ve tried to avoid trading, when volumes are weak and market moves, both up and down, are given more concern than they need to have. Lots of print has been devoted to the oil market, looking weak from a gasoline glut that I believe will clear rather quickly. Some increases in supply from Canada and Libya seem also to have the analysts chewing their fingernails, but these are minor adjustments into the global supply/demand balance. I like to think of weekly stockpile numbers as ‘small ball’ inputs – we are playing ‘long ball’ where global rebalancing of oil markets is destined to drive oil prices back towards triple digits, and our stocks with it.
While we wait however, let’s look at a few of the more recent plays I’ve given subscribers: Southwestern Energy (SWN), Cheniere Energy (LNG) , Silver Run Acquisitions (SRAQU) and Anadarko Petroleum (APC). All have done well since their initial recommendations, so should we hang in with them all or is it time to take the money and run?
Southwestern Energy was always a speculative play based upon a weak oil market while looking at a natural gas market that likely might see some storage drops in the middle of a heat wave. SWN was particularly under pressure and I thought ready to respond to an increase in degree days combined with a lower inflow into storage.