• 4 minutes 2nd Annual Great Oil Price Prediction Challenge of 2019
  • 7 minutes Nucelar Deal Is Dead? Iran Distances Itself Further From ND, Alarming Russia And France
  • 10 minutes Don Jr. Tweets name Ukraine Whistleblower, Eric Ciaramella. Worked for CIA during Obama Administration, Hold over to Trump National Security Counsel under Gen McCallister, more . . . .
  • 13 minutes Shale pioneer Chesepeak will file bankruptcy soon. FINALLY ! The consolidation begins
  • 35 mins EU has already lost the Trump vs. EU Trade War
  • 20 mins More dumbed down? re Hong Kong Act of Congress
  • 19 hours Impeachment S**te
  • 4 hours Pope Proposes New Sin: Thou Shalt Not Destroy The Harmony Of The Environment
  • 6 hours Article: Did Exxon only make $39 Million onshore U.S. last quarter ?
  • 1 day 55.00 WTI
  • 7 hours U.S. Shale To Break Records Despite Bearish Rhetoric
  • 10 hours Visualizing Pennsylvania Oil & Gas Production (Through September 2019)
  • 1 day Everything You Need To Know About Trump
  • 1 day Water, Trump, and Israel’s National Security
  • 52 mins What are the odds of 4 U.S. politicians all having children working for Ukraine Gas Companies?
  • 2 mins U.S. Shale Output may Start Dropping Next Year
  • 35 mins Petroleum Industry Domain Names
  • 5 hours Last I Checked
Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

More Info

Anxious Natural Gas Traders Forget Fundamentals

February Natural Gas

The big story the past week was the nearly 25 percent surge in February Natural Gas futures prices. The move was driven by the change from extremely warm temperatures in key demand areas in December to forecasts of below normal temperatures for early January.

After settling at its lowest level in 16-years on December 17, natural gas went on a tremendous run which took prices to their highest level since November 19. The move took many traders by surprise, causing a short-squeeze in the January futures contract, which expired on December 29.

The price action on December 30 suggests the market may have posted a short-term top. If this proves to be true then we could be setting up for the all-important correction next week.

Following a prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the first rally from an extreme low is mostly short-covering. Once the market stops going down or unexpected news hits the market, short-sellers will pay anything to protect their profits. This creates a buying frenzy as sellers continue to raise offers and buyers continue to chase the market higher. This is what we may have seen the past two weeks.

(Click to enlarge)

Technically, the main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The main range is $3.097 to $1.802. Its 50% level at $2.450 is the primary upside target along with a downtrending angle at $2.497. Most initial rallies from important bottoms end on a test of a key…




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News