• 3 minutes 2nd Annual Great Oil Price Prediction Challenge of 2019
  • 6 minutes "Leaked" request by some Democrats that they were asking Nancy to coordinate censure instead of impeachment.
  • 11 minutes Trump's China Strategy: Death By a Thousand Paper Cuts
  • 14 minutes Democrats through impeachment process helped Trump go out of China deal conundrum. Now Trump can safely postpone deal till after November 2020 elections
  • 24 mins Shale Oil Fiasco
  • 6 hours USA v China. Which is 'best'?
  • 16 mins Everything you think you know about economics is WRONG!
  • 6 hours Wallstreet's "acid test" for Democrat Presidential candidate to receive their financial support . . . Support "Carried Interest"
  • 2 hours My interview on PDVSA Petrocaribe and corruption
  • 15 hours Wonders of US Shale: US Shale Benefits: The U.S. leads global petroleum and natural gas production with record growth in 2018
  • 7 hours Quotes from the Widowmaker
  • 1 day True Confessions of a Billionaire
  • 6 hours Global Debt Worries. How Will This End?
  • 13 hours Petroleum Industry Domain Names
Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

More Info

Where Does Oil Go From Here?

rig

This last week, there was immediate wailing from the analysts as soon as the announcement went out that the Saudis and the Russians were discussing an increase of up to 1 million barrels a day in their production agreement.

Many believe that the Saudis and therefore OPEC are giving up on the production deal that has brought oil from the depths of $30 oil to trade above $70 a barrel in the benchmark Brent. To them, any relaxation in the unprecedented collective between OPEC and the Russians indicates that the deal is ‘shattered’. Now, they believe that oil could be headed back to the depths it came from and are watching for OPEC to revert to its old and well-known habits of unenforceable quotas and unlimited oil production.

I say, not so fast.

Let’s look at the prior indicators for this latest drop in oil prices. We knew there were indications that the Saudis had promised Trump and the U.S. that it would take care of any shortfalls caused by the abandonment of the Iranian nuclear deal and the return of Iranian sanctions.

We also knew that the Russians were eager to be a part of any slippage in production guidelines as they have no loyalty to OPEC or the global supply chain, and are without a doubt the weakest (and most surprising link) in the production deal that has held together for nearly 18 months now.

But let’s do some simple math: Iranian sanctions are likely to target as much as 1.2m barrels a day from Iran, which…




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News