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Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

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What Does It Take To Move Oil Prices?

Oil Rig

It’s been “chop city” this week on the daily April West Texas Intermediate crude oil chart, but the weekly chart continues to look orderly. There also continues to be a clash between the fundamental traders. Although recent government and exchange data shows a record number of long positions being held by hedge and commodity funds, the price action seems to be suggesting that an equal number of traders are bullish and bearish.

Despite crude oil and gasoline stockpiles sitting at near record highs and U.S. production seemingly increasing weekly, the funds continue to bet on the long side, or that the OPEC or non-OPEC member deal to curtail production, trim the global supply and stabilize prices will win over the long run.

Even the news this week about increased U.S. exports failed to draw enough sellers to drive prices back to their recent lows. The new export numbers this week clearly indicate that U.S. producers are filling the void in the Asian markets left by the OPEC countries complying with their pledge to the cut output. On the surface, this seems to indicate that the OPEC plan is having little or no effect on global supply, however, prices still remain near the top of the trading range.

While the weekly chart pattern, indicates the April WTI market is at a standstill, looking beyond the prices, it also indicates impending volatility. In other words, this market can’t continue to straddle a key retracement zone much longer because…

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